数字产业化的结构转型效应研究——理论模型与实证检验

艾阳　宋培　李琳

（南开大学经济学院）

     

　　内容提要：持续推动产业结构转型是中国式现代化的内在要求。本文通过构建多部门一般均衡模型阐述数字产业化影响产业结构转型的内在机理，并通过数值分析发现，当数字产品与制造产品的替代弹性较高、与传统服务产品的替代弹性较低，且制造业要素替代弹性较高时，数字产业化将通过提高货物部门实际产出和制造业资本密集度，提高服务业就业比重和名义产出份额，推动产业结构服务化转型。基于2005—2020年省级面板数据的实证检验结果表明，数字产业化会提高工业部门的生产力水平，促使劳动要素向服务业部门转移及服务业产出份额持续提升，最终推动产业结构转型。该结论经过稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验结果表明，市场机制与产业互动是数字产业化推动产业结构转型的重要渠道。异质性检验结果表明，数字产业化的结构转型效应存在区域和时间差异。研究结论为中国深挖数字经济发展潜力、推动建设中国现代化产业体系提供理论依据与政策建议。

　　

　　关键词：数字产业化；产业结构转型；市场机制；产业互动；资本深化

　　

　　作者简介：艾阳，南开大学经济学院博士研究生，天津，300071；宋培，南开大学经济学院博士研究生，通信作者；李琳，南开大学经济学院博士研究生。

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“大国经济条件下构建自主可控的现代产业体系重大问题研究”(21&ZD099)；南开大学文科发展基金重点项目“数字化与‘鲍莫尔成本病’——理论反思与现实考察”(ZB22BZ0105)

　　引用格式：艾阳,宋培,李琳.数字产业化的结构转型效应研究——理论模型与实证检验[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(12):3-23.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.12.001.

　　

　　

Structural Transformation Effect of Digital Industrialization —Theoretical Model and Empirical

AI Yang, SONG Pei, LI Lin

(Nankai University, Tianjin 300071)

　　

　　Abstract: As the foundation and driver of the development of the digital economy, digital industrialization is a realistic manifestation of promoting the development of emerging industrial clusters with digital technology as the core. It is becoming an important starting point for the construction of a modern industrial system. Thus, this paper intends to investigate the potential impact of digital industrialization on the industrial structure transformation.

　　This paper constructs a multi-sector general equilibrium model to elaborate the underlying mechanism. The numerical simulation reveals that when the elasticity of substitution of digital products and manufactured products, and production factors in manufacturing is high, and that of digital products and traditional service products is low, digital industrialization will promote service-oriented industrial structure transformation by improving the real output of goods sector and the capital intensity of manufacturing, and increasing the employment proportion and nominal output share of the service industry.

　　Then, the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2005 to 2020 is used to conduct an empirical test. It is found that digital industrialization will improve the productivity level of the industrial sector, promote the transfer of labor factors to the service sector, increase the output share of the service sector continuously, and advance the industrial structure transformation. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. The heterogeneity test reveals that digital industrialization increases the proportion of the service industry in the more developed regions. However, in the less developed regions, it shows the latter advantages of material abundance and the shift of employment to services. Furthermore, the promotion effect of digital industrialization on industrial structure transformation is more obvious after 2013. The mechanism test shows that the market mechanism and industrial interaction are the key channels for this promotion effect.

　　The following four aspects are proposed to explore the potential of digital industrialization and build China’s modern industrial system better. First, it should focus on tackling the frontiers and the key core technologies of digital technology and grasp the autonomy of digital industrialization. Second, the servitization of industrial structure needs to be based on the continuous improvement of material productivity and should pay attention to the quality of development of the service industry and the proportion of industry while focusing on the increase in the service industry. Third, it should grasp the opportunities brought by the digital economy for labor allocation, attach importance to the quality and structure optimization of human capital, and plan for the labor transfer to the service industry in advance. Fourth, it should promote the integration and interaction between digital and traditional industries, make full use of the market to allocate resources, and lay emphasis on classified policies.

　　Keywords: digital industrialization; industrial structure transformation; market mechanism; industrial interaction; capital deepening

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