区域协调发展促进了就业扩容吗？

——基于京津冀协同发展战略实施的准自然实验

辛冲冲¹　席鹏辉²　唐世芳³

（1.北京市社会科学院；2. 中国社会科学院；3. 广西财经学院）

内容提要：就业是民生之本，是党和国家关心的民生头等大事，面对错综复杂的国内外经济形势，如何稳就业成为重中之重。本文选取2010—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据，研究京津冀协同发展战略的实施能否促进就业扩容及其作用机制。研究结果表明，京津冀协同发展战略的实施促进了就业扩容，且这一结论通过了一系列稳健性检验。机制分析结果显示，京津冀协同发展战略的实施能够加速企业成长、促进人口流动和推动数字经济建设，从而促进企业就业扩容。异质性分析结果显示，政策的实施效果在国有企业、人力资本水平较高地区和自然资源禀赋较低地区更为明显。对此，应继续推动京津冀协同发展战略的实施，优化相关政策举措；在继续保持对国有企业的支持外，也应重点激发非国有企业的活力；充实地区人力资本力量，推动京津冀协同发展战略的高效实施；针对地区自然资源禀赋的不同，实施差异化的财政支持政策。

关键词：知识产权保护；知识产权示范城市；创新集聚；有效市场；有为政府

作者简介：辛冲冲，北京市社会科学院《北京社会科学》编辑部助理研究员、编辑，北京，100101；席鹏辉，中国社会科学院财经战略研究院副研究员，北京，100006；唐世芳，广西财经学院财政与公共管理学院副教授，通信作者，南宁，530003。

基金项目：中国社会科学院重大创新项目“提高人民生活品质，完善全社会基本公共服务体系研究”（2023YZD024）

引用格式：辛冲冲,席鹏辉,唐世芳.区域协调发展促进了就业扩容吗？——基于京津冀协同发展战略实施的准自然实验[J].经济与管理研究,2024,45(12):88-105.

Does Coordinated Regional Development Promote Employment Expansion?

—A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Implementation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Strategy

XIN Chongchong¹, XI Penghui², TANG Shifang³

(1. Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101;

2. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100006;

3. Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530003)

Abstract: Employment is the foundation of people's livelihoods. Stabilizing employment becomes a top priority when facing complicated external environments, such as China-US trade friction and the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper adopts the sample data of A-share listed firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2022 to explore whether the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development (BTHCD) strategy can promote employment expansion of enterprises and its mechanism.

This paper obtains several key findings. First, the BTHCD strategy is conducive to promoting corporate employment expansion. This finding remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Second, this promoting effect is achieved mainly by accelerating enterprise growth, facilitating population mobility, and promoting the digital economy development. Third, the heterogeneity analysis shows that implementing this type of policy has a more prominent influence in state-owned enterprises and areas with high human capital levels and low natural resource endowments.

Based on the research results, this paper puts forward the following suggestions. First, the policy effect of the BTHCD strategy should be fully utilized to promote corporate employment expansion. Second, emphasis should be placed on stimulating the vitality of non-state-owned enterprises, playing an important role in the implementation of the BTHCD strategy. Third, the government should emphasize the education and introduction of human capital to promote the efficient implementation of the BTHCD strategy. Fourth, the policy experience of BTHCD should be promoted according to local conditions, and financial support policies should be implemented according to differences in natural resource endowments.

The marginal contributions are mainly reflected in the following aspects. First, this paper adopts the difference-in-differences method to accurately assess the policy effects of the BTHCD strategy in affecting corporate employment expansion, which enriches the related research on the policy effects of regional integration. Second, this paper reveals the mechanism through which the BTHCD strategy affects employment expansion. Third, this paper also conducts various heterogeneity tests of practical significance, providing theoretical support and empirical evidence for the improvement of relevant policies, as well as possible ideas for further promoting corporate employment expansion.

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy; regional integration; stabilizing employment; enterprise growth; population mobility; digital economy development

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