智链全球：人工智能对数字贸易的影响

马梦涓¹　余紫菱²　马莉莉¹

（1.西北大学；2.新疆大学）

内容提要：人工智能正在深度嵌入贸易体系，重塑其要素配置与协同能力，成为激发数字贸易增长新动能的关键力量。本文基于2005—2019年67个国家的面板数据，实证研究人工智能对数字贸易的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，人工智能对数字贸易具有促进作用。机制检验结果表明，人工智能通过数字人才驱动效应和数字供应链优化效应，推动数字贸易规模扩张。此外，人工智能在提升数字贸易韧性方面亦发挥关键作用，表现为在面临外部冲击导致的双边数字贸易关系断裂时，人工智能展现出抑制作用，且该效应随冲击强度上升而增强。同时，人工智能不仅加快既有数字贸易关系的恢复进程，也推动贸易合作向替代性路径的有效转移。本文的研究结论为培育数字贸易新优势提供了经验证据，也为构建更加可持续、具有韧性的全球数字贸易新格局提供了政策参考。

关键词：人工智能；数字贸易；数字人才驱动效应；数字供应链优化效应；数字贸易韧性

作者简介：马梦涓，西北大学经济管理学院博士研究生，西安，710127；余紫菱，新疆大学经济与管理学院讲师，通信作者，乌鲁木齐，830046；马莉莉，西北大学经济管理学院教授、博士生导师。

基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“‘一带一路’数字贸易便利化对沿线国家价值链重构的影响研究：基于效率和公平的双重视角”（72204197）；国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球数字服务贸易网络演化机制与中国应对策略研究”（24CGJ029）

引用格式：马梦涓,余紫菱,马莉莉.智链全球:人工智能对数字贸易的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(7):3-21.

Intelligent Linkage for Global Trade: Impact of AI on Digital Trade

MA Mengjuan¹, YU Ziling², MA Lili¹

(1. Northwest University, Xi’an 710127;

2. Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046)

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes how production factors are allocated and coordinated, bringing structural changes to trade operations. This paper empirically examines the impact of AI on digital trade and its underlying mechanisms, using panel data from 67 countries spanning the years 2005 and 2019.

The findings are as follows. First, AI performance plays a crucial role in expanding digital trade.This conclusion remains valid after addressing endogeneity issues and conducting robustness tests. Second, this positive effect operates through the digital talent-driven effect and the digital supply chain optimization effect. Third, AI critically strengthens digital trade resilience. During external shocks, AI exhibits a notable buffering effect, accelerating the recovery of damaged trade relationships.

This paper offers valuable insights for national governments formulating digital trade strategies and enhancing institutional governance. Extending AI coverage to small and medium-sized enterprises, traditional industries, and peripheral regions is essential to strengthen the foundation of digital trade. Governments are advised to enhance fiscal support and incentive frameworks. Strengthening digital talent pipelines is equally important. Promoting the cultivation of interdisciplinary “AI + trade” talent and enhancing cross-border supply chain coordination improve resource allocation efficiency. Governments should reinforce digital trade early warning and substitution mechanisms and foster a multi-center, highly resilient digital trade network to enhance national resilience and institutional competitiveness within the global digital economy.

The marginal contributions lie in the following aspects. First, this paper introduces and analyzes the enhancement of digital human capital and the optimization of digital supply, deepening the understanding of the intrinsic linkage between AI and digital trade dynamics. While prior research acknowledges AI’s role in digital trade, it remains within the traditional framework of cost compression and efficiency improvement. This paper complements existing work, focusing on how AI reshapes digital production factor allocation and coordination paradigms. Second, this paper presents the quantitative assessment of digital trade resilience from the perspective of relationship rupture and reconstruction. Earlier studies on trade resilience focused on how pandemics or natural disasters disrupt traditional trade, with limited attention to digital trade relationship rupture, recovery, or reconstruction under compounded external shocks. On this basis, this paper demonstrates AI’s pivotal role in mitigating disruptions and facilitating both recovery and alternative trade pathways from a global perspective. Third, the paper provides robust empirical evidence and policy references for leveraging strategic opportunities presented by the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; digital trade; digital talent-driven effect; digital supply chain optimization effect; digital trade resilience

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