电商进村政策对农业增长的影响

潘嗣同　盖庆恩　史清华

（上海交通大学）

内容提要：中国农村电商迅速崛起，为农业领域带来深刻变革。本文使用2001—2020年中国县级面板数据，以电子商务进农村综合示范政策（简称“电商进村政策”）的实施作为准自然实验，采用多期双重差分模型考察政府支持的农村电商发展对农业增长的影响。研究结果显示，电商进村政策促进了农业增长。进一步分析结果表明：第一，政策实施产生的农业增长效应源于农业全要素生产率的提高以及土地要素的追加投入；第二，政策实施通过线上需求牵引供给扩张与供给侧结构性改革，促进了新型农业经营主体增长并推动了高附加值农业发展，由此形成农业全要素生产率提高和土地要素追加投入的着力点，并最终促成农业增长。异质性分析结果表明，在距中心城市越近、海拔越低、坡度越低的地区，政策实施产生的农业增长效应越明显。本文从农业供给侧调整视角提供了农村电商发展促进农业增长的证据。

关键词：农村电商；农业增长；农业全要素生产率；土地要素；新型农业经营主体；高附加值农业

作者简介：潘嗣同，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院博士研究生，上海，200030；盖庆恩，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院教授、博士生导师；史清华，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院特聘教授、博士生导师，通信作者。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“劳动力流动视角下健全城乡融合发展机制研究”（21&ZD077）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“粮食安全背景下农户储粮行为的变化及其内在机理研究”（72173085）；国家自然科学基金专项项目“促进中国农村共同富裕的长效机制及政策研究”（72442019）

引用格式：潘嗣同,盖庆恩,史清华.电商进村政策对农业增长的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(12):74-91.

Impact of Rural E-commerce Development Policy on Agricultural Growth in China

PAN Sitong, GAI Qing’en, SHI Qinghua

(Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030)

Abstract: In the context of China’s rural revitalization and digital economy strategies, rural e-commerce has emerged as a transformative force in reshaping traditional agricultural development. While existing theoretical frameworks have provided partial explanations for China’s agricultural growth over the past decade, they fall short of fully capturing the dynamics observed in the digital era. This paper investigates whether and how government-supported rural e-commerce initiatives from 2001 to 2020 have contributed to China’s agricultural growth. Specifically, it exploits the phased rollout of the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy across counties as a quasi-natural experiment to understand the causal relationship between rural e-commerce development and agricultural growth, using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy.

The analysis is based on a county-level panel dataset covering two decades, which enables us to isolate temporal and spatial variations in policy implementation. The empirical findings suggest that the implementation of the rural e-commerce development policy boosts agricultural growth, with an average increase of 2.59% in the value added of the primary industry. These results are robust valid after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests.

Mechanism analysis indicates that improvements in total factor productivity (TFP) and additional land input are the primary channels through which the policy exerts its influence. However, unlike traditional agricultural development characterized by factor accumulation, rural e-commerce promotes a demand-driven transformation on the supply side of agriculture. Specifically, rural e-commerce catalyzes two structural changes. First, it induces supply expansion by broadening market access and stimulating online demand, which, in turn, fosters the emergence and growth of modern agricultural business entities. Second, it boosts the development of local high-value-added agricultural industries aligned with consumer preferences by guiding the upgrading of agricultural product structures.

Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy’s boosting effects are stronger in counties located closer to provincial capitals, at lower elevations, and with lower slopes, implying that transportation and logistical conditions play a critical role in mediating the effectiveness of rural e-commerce.

The paper offers the following policy insights: the government should continue to invest in ensuring equitable access to digital infrastructure in rural areas; e-commerce training programs should be scaled up to improve farmers’ digital literacy and operational capabilities; mechanisms for integrating stakeholders, such as the government, agribusinesses, cooperatives, and e-commerce platforms, should be developed to form symbiotic value chains and improve the competitiveness of local agricultural brands.

The paper underscores the significance of e-commerce in agricultural transformation. While rural e-commerce is a uniquely Chinese phenomenon in terms of scale and institutional support, its implications may extend to other developing economies undergoing agricultural modernization.

Keywords: rural e-commerce; agricultural growth; agricultural TFP; land element; modern agricultural business entity; high-value-added agriculture

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