创新型产业集群试点政策能否增强城市产业链韧性？

郭东¹　杨大鹏²　乔璐³

（1.郑州航空工业管理学院；2.中共浙江省委党校；3.山东理工大学）

摘要：创新型产业集群试点作为突破传统产业低端锁定的政策尝试，是推动城市产业链结构性优化与韧性提升的重要举措。本文以2011—2023年279个地级及以上城市为研究样本，运用双重机器学习模型，探讨了创新型产业集群试点政策对城市产业链韧性的影响和作用机制。研究发现，创新型产业集群试点政策能够增强城市产业链韧性。机制分析表明，试点政策能够通过提高产业智能化水平、创业活跃度和促进人力资本集聚来增强城市产业链韧性。异质性分析表明，在东部城市、大城市和老工业基地城市，试点政策对城市产业链韧性的增强效应更大。本文的研究结论为进一步优化创新型产业集群建设和增强城市经济韧性提供了经验证据。

关键词：创新型产业集群；城市产业链韧性；产业智能化；创业活跃度；人力资本集聚

作者简介：郭东，郑州航空工业管理学院经济学院讲师，郑州，450046；杨大鹏，中共浙江省委党校经济学教研部副教授，杭州，311121；乔璐，山东理工大学经济学院讲师，通信作者，淄博，255000。

基金项目：浙江省哲学社会科学规划之江青年专项课题“数字赋能工业互联网平台构建路径与优化对策研究”（24ZJQN073Y）；山东省自然科学基金项目“产研适配性与山东企业高质量发展：影响、机制与对策”（ZR2025QC1269）

引用格式：郭东，杨大鹏，乔璐. 创新型产业集群试点政策能否增强城市产业链韧性？［J］. 经济与管理研究，2026，47（9）：96-111.

Can the Pilot Policy of Innovative Industrial Clusters Enhance Urban Industrial Chain Resilience?

GUO Dong¹, YANG Dapeng², QIAO Lu³

(1. Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046;

2. Party School of Zhejiang Provincial Committee of C.P.C., Hangzhou 311121;

3. Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000)

Abstract: The pilot policy of innovative industrial clusters is designed to break the low-end lock-in dilemma of traditional industries and plays a vital role in optimizing the structure of urban industrial chains and boosting industrial chain resilience. Against the backdrop of global industrial chain restructuring and intensifying regional economic competition, isolated industrial support policies can hardly secure industrial upgrading and industrial chains simultaneously, whereas this pilot policy can restructure urban industrial chain systems and enhance the shock resistance and recoverability of industrial chains. Therefore, systematically investigating the boosting effect of this pilot policy on urban industrial chain resilience (ICR) and clarifying its underlying transmission logic has guiding significance in strengthening industrial safety barriers and developing controllable, modern industrial chain systems.

This paper takes 279 prefecture-level and above cities across China from 2011 to 2023 as research samples and employs the double machine learning model to empirically examine the direct impact of the pilot policy on urban ICR. The results indicate that the pilot policy can improve urban ICR. Mechanism analyses confirm three channels: raising industrial intelligence levels, stimulating urban entrepreneurial vitality, and accelerating human capital agglomeration. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the policy effect is more prominent in eastern cities, large cities, and old industrial base cities. The above conclusions provide empirical evidence for local governments to optimize the planning and layout of innovative industrial clusters, improve supporting incentive policies, and elevate cities' overall economic resilience.

The marginal contributions are twofold. First, regarding the measurement of ICR, this paper returns to the classical original connotation of resilience theory and constructs an indicator calculation system centered on two essential core dimensions of industrial chains: resistance and recoverability. This design effectively avoids research drawbacks, including overgeneralized definitions of resilience and excessive variable overlap. Second, regarding the design of mechanism identification, this paper closely aligns with the four sets of policy tools employed in the pilot policy, namely research and development support, innovation platforms, industrial coordination, and innovation ecosystems. It establishes three logically coherent transmission channels from the perspectives of technological transformation, market entity vitality, and factor accumulation. This design realizes a precise correspondence between mechanism identification and practical policy instruments, constituting the core innovation that distinguishes this paper from conventional studies that focus on single industrial agglomeration effects.

Keywords: innovative industrial clusters; urban industrial chain resilience; industrial intelligence; entrepreneurial vitality; human capital agglomeration

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