跨境电商提升了中国企业供应链韧性吗？

——基于安全与效率双重路径的分析

魏龙¹　闫晗¹　蔡培民²　杨述明³

（1.武汉理工大学；2.湖北大学；3.华中科技大学）

内容提要：供应链安全稳定是国民经济畅通循环的重要基础，跨境电商为打造更具韧性的供应链体系赋予了新动能。本文基于网络爬虫和文本分析方法识别企业跨境电商业务的开展情况，并实证检验其对供应链韧性的影响。研究结果表明，开展跨境电商业务提升了企业供应链韧性，该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验结果表明，供应链安全水平提升和运营效率优化是跨境电商提升供应链韧性的双重路径。进一步分析发现，在外部环境不确定性的影响下，企业的供应链构建从“效率优先”向“安全效率兼顾”转变是跨境电商提升供应链韧性的底层逻辑。此外，跨境电商可以有效缓解系统性风险的负面冲击，进而提升供应链韧性。该提升作用在商家对商家型企业、平台型企业、客户供应链距离较远企业、非高科技行业企业、营商环境劣势地区企业中更为明显。本文的研究结论能够为企业在风险叠加环境下打造安全稳定的供应链体系提供策略启示。

关键词：跨境电商；供应链韧性；安全；效率；供应链策略转变；系统性风险

作者简介：魏龙，武汉理工大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，武汉，430070；闫晗，武汉理工大学经济学院博士研究生，通信作者；蔡培民，湖北大学商学院博士后，武汉，430062；杨述明，华中科技大学国家治理研究院特聘研究员、博士生导师，武汉，430074。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建人类命运共同体进程中国际经济规则重建的理论逻辑及中国的战略选择”（19ZDA054）

引用格式：魏龙,闫晗,蔡培民,等.跨境电商提升了中国企业供应链韧性吗?——基于安全与效率双重路径的分析[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(9):56-73.

Has Cross-border E-commerce Improved Supply Chain Resilience of Chinese Firms?

—Based on the Dual Path Analysis of Security and Efficiency

WEI Long¹, YAN Han¹, CAI Peimin², YANG Shuming³

(1. Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070;

2. Hubei University, Wuhan 430062;

3. Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074)

Abstract: Intensifying geopolitical tensions and structural shifts in global supply chains have raised the risk of decoupling and disruption for firms operating under the global division of labor. Ensuring secure and stable supply chains and building resilient, independent, and controllable systems have become vital for advancing China’s new pattern of development and high-quality growth. Cross-border e-commerce (CBEC), a new trade model emerging from the integration of digital and real economies, exhibits strong momentum amid international uncertainty, improving supply chain management and resilience.

This paper utilizes data from China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022, applying a web crawler and text analysis to identify and measure firms’ CBEC activities. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model, it empirically examines the impact of CBEC on supply chain resilience from both safety and efficiency perspectives. The findings indicate that CBEC can enhance firms’ resistance, recovery, and development capacities in the face of risk shocks, thereby improving supply chain resilience. From the safety perspective, it promotes supply chain diversification and relationship stability; from the efficiency perspective, it optimizes inventory management and reduces transaction costs. Driven by external environmental uncertainty, firms shift from prioritizing efficiency to balancing safety and efficiency in supply chain construction, which underlies the improvement in resilience. Moreover, CBEC effectively mitigates the adverse effects of systemic risks on supply chains. The enhancement is more pronounced among B2B firms, platform firms, firms with distant customer supply chains, firms in non-high-tech industries, and firms operating in regions with weaker business environments. Based on the above findings, the policy recommendations proposed in this paper include strengthening innovation and optimizing internal and external conditions, such as CBEC business models, resource integration, and business environments; accelerating the development of CBEC business entities; and establishing a high-standard digital trade infrastructure.

This paper expands the research perspective on the relationship between CBEC and supply chain resilience. It enriches the identification of impact pathways through which CBEC enhances resilience and addresses the limited attention given to its role in mitigating systemic shocks. Overall, the conclusions offer empirical support and strategic insights to help firms maintain secure and stable global operations, as well as build supply chains that are smooth, efficient, and resilient amid rising external risks.

Keywords: cross-border e-commerce; supply chain resilience; security; efficiency; supply chain strategy transformation; systemic risk

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