劳动生产率与最优假日配置——模型、仿真与实证

魏翔

（中国社会科学院大学商学院；中国社会科学院财经战略研究院）

　　内容提要：本文基于时间配置理论建立公共假日的混合整数非线性规则（NMIP）动态治理模型，利用求解约束整数程序（SCIP）算法器进行仿真测算，并利用126个经济体的数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明，分散休假模式既有利于劳动生产率最大化又有利于长期增长，是能够促进经济高质量发展的最优假日治理模式。因此，可以考虑对当前的黄金周等行政性集中休假制度进行适当调整，提高公共假日在全年分布的分散性，增强节假日安排的固定性和制度性，并通过推进带薪休假和短假期的自主结合来满足人们探亲访友、长途旅游的需求。

　　

　　关键词：公共假日；劳动生产率；经济增长；黄金周；最优假日配置；高质量发展

　　

　　作者简介：魏翔，中国社会科学院大学商学院教授、博士生导师，北京，102488；中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员，北京，100006。

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“自动化浪潮下零工经济的薪酬特性及其就业效应研究”（20BJY056）

　　引用格式：魏翔.劳动生产率与最优假日配置——模型、仿真与实证[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(11):84-103.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.11.005.

　　

　　

Labor Productivity and Optimal Holiday Allocation —Modeling, Simulation and Empirical Evidence

WEI Xiang^1,2

(1. University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488;

2. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100006)

　　

　　Abstract: Public holidays play an effective role in improving holiday welfare and stimulating consumption in China. However, the necessity of maintaining the administrative transfer system sparks controversy amidst the challenges of the tourism boom during the Golden Week and the need to enhance vacation quality. Meanwhile, the theoretical modeling and quantitative measurement of the optimal holiday allocation in China lacks a systematic demonstration, particularly a long-term analysis with labor productivity as the optimal goal.

　　Based on the theory of the allocation of time, this paper establishes a dynamic governance model for public holidays using nonlinear mixed integer programming (NMIP) and simulating results through the solving constraint integer program (SCIP) algorithm. The findings indicate that aligning holiday allocation with the natural calendar can bring higher labor productivity. Subsequently, using data from 126 major economies, the paper further confirms that the decentralized holiday system can improve long-term economic growth.

　　The conclusions reveal that maximizing total labor productivity and increasing long-term economic growth is facilitated by decentralizing vacations evenly. Therefore, the decentralized holiday system becomes the optimal holiday allocation model to promote high-quality economic development. This paper provides three suggestions for China’s holiday reform and adjustment policies. First, it is suggested to launch a new round of holiday reform demonstrations, appropriately adjust the current centralized leave systems such as the Golden Week, and shift the focus of holiday adjustment from solely increasing or decreasing the total duration to optimizing the structure. Second, it is recommended to align public holidays with the natural calendar and creatively promote paid leave and short-term breaks to meet the demand for long-term holidays, including visiting relatives and traveling. Third, it is necessary to gradually pilot the 2.5-day workweek and explore innovative models of decentralized holidays with Chinese characteristics.

　　The contributions of this paper are as follows. In theory, it establishes the optimal holiday governance model, captures the dynamic process of holiday allocation under the framework of labor productivity, and carries out the discrete dynamic simulation calculation, which proves that the decentralized holiday system is the most efficient holiday governance model. In methods, it invokes the SCIP algorithm and obtains the discrete dynamic optimal solution of holiday configuration using the OPTI toolbox. In practice, it provides strategic references for restructuring holidays, achieving steady growth, and promoting high-quality development.

　　Keywords: public holiday; labor productivity; economic growth; Golden Week; optimal holiday allocation; high-quality development