经济增长目标设定如何影响财政透明度？——来自地级及以上城市的经验证据

刘奥¹　张双龙²

（1. 中国财政科学研究院；2. 中南财经政法大学财政税务学院）

　　内容提要：财政透明是提升政府治理水平，实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要措施。本文基于经济增长目标管理和政府行为视角，提出财政透明度与经济增长目标之间存在着先促进后抑制的倒U型关系；进而利用2013—2019年的地级及以上城市数据，实证检验经济增长目标对财政透明度的线性效应和非线性效应，并对其进行了机制检验、异质性分析与拓展研究。研究结果验证了本文提出的理论假设，且经济增长目标主要通过扩大基建投资等降低财政透明度，通过吸引外商直接投资提高财政透明度，而土地出让单价在地方经济增长目标影响财政透明度的作用中具有不同效应；经济增长目标对财政透明度的影响在不同地区、不同市场化水平、不同等级城市之间均存在显著差异。研究结论有助于厘清财政透明度与经济增长目标之间的具体关系，从而为推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化以及保障高质量发展提供政策参考依据。

　　

　　关键词：政府行为；财政透明度；经济增长目标；外商直接投资；土地出让

　　

　　作者简介：刘奥，中国财政科学研究院博士研究生，北京，100142；张双龙，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院博士研究生，通信作者，武汉，430073。

　　

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“深化‘放管服’改革与发展软环境研究”（19ZDA110）；河南省重点研发与推广专项（软科学）项目“地方政府债务影响河南绿色经济发展的空间效应及应对策略研究”（232400411190）；河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目“河南省地方政府债务绩效评价研究”（2023-ZDJH-359）

　　

　　引用格式：刘奥,张双龙.经济增长目标设定如何影响财政透明度?——来自地级及以上城市的经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(10):14-32.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.10.002.

　　

　　

How does Economic Growth Target Setting Affect Fiscal Transparency?

—Empirical Evidence from Cities at the Prefecture Level and Above

LIU Ao¹, ZHANG Shuanglong²

(1. Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, Beijing 100142;

2. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073)

　　

　　Abstract: Fiscal transparency is a crucial measure to enhance government governance and modernize China’s system and capacity for governance. However, little literature discusses the impact of economic growth targets on fiscal transparency. This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth targets and fiscal transparency from the perspectives of economic growth target management and government behavior. Then, using the panel data for cities at and above the prefecture level and municipal fiscal transparency data from 2013 to 2019, it empirically examines the linear and nonlinear effects of economic growth targets on fiscal transparency and carries out the mechanism test, heterogeneity analysis, and extended research.

　　The findings indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth targets and fiscal transparency. The mechanism test shows that economic growth targets reduce fiscal transparency by expanding urban infrastructure investment, and improve fiscal transparency by attracting foreign direct investment. Among them, the unit price of land transfer plays different roles. The heterogeneity test reveals a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth targets and fiscal transparency in central and western regions, regions with low marketization levels, lower-tier cities, and regions with achieved economic growth expectations. Economic growth targets have a negative impact on fiscal transparency in regions with high marketization levels, high-tier cities, and regions with unachieved economic growth targets. The extended analysis shows that an increase in economic growth targets significantly inhibits fiscal transparency. Specifically, soft constraints on economic growth targets promote fiscal transparency, while hard ones inhibit fiscal transparency.

　　The marginal contribution of this paper lies in three aspects. First, from the perspective of government behaviors, it discusses the relationship between economic growth targets and fiscal transparency in the context of target pressure and promotion incentives, addressing the limitations of previous literature on the influencing factors of fiscal transparency. Second, it clarifies the theoretical mechanism through which economic growth targets affect fiscal transparency and proposes an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship, providing a valuable reference for promoting governments to improve fiscal transparency. Third, it expands the impact of elevating economic growth targets and intensifying target constraints on fiscal transparency, bringing enlightenment for optimizing the management system of economic growth targets and modernizing China’s system and capacities for governance.

　　

　　Keywords: government behavior; fiscal transparency; economic growth target; foreign direct investment; land transfer