颠覆性创新感知对新能源和燃油汽车购买意愿的影响
史丹1,2 明星1 宁成浩3
（1. 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所；2. 浙江财经大学-中国社会科学院大学浙江研究院；3. 国家能源集团技术经济研究院）
内容提要：颠覆性技术创新是企业弯道超车的一个有效途径。消费者尤其是主流消费者对燃油汽车的态度对于新能源汽车能否成功替代燃油汽车至关重要。本文采用结构方程模型，探究颠覆性创新感知对消费者购买新能源汽车和燃油汽车的影响，并考察消费者对燃油汽车满意度的中介效应和消费者创新性的调节效应。研究结果显示：（1）新能源汽车的购买意愿已经超过燃油汽车；（2）颠覆性创新感知直接促进消费者购买新能源汽车，抑制其购买燃油汽车；（3）消费者对燃油汽车的满意度部分中介调节颠覆性创新感知和消费者购买意愿；（4）创新性较弱的消费者对燃油汽车的满意度更容易受到颠覆性创新感知的影响。因此，企业在开展颠覆性创新研发时应凸显燃油汽车不具备的功能，在市场营销时应更多关注创新性较弱的消费者，让其感知到颠覆性创新。本文的研究丰富了颠覆性创新理论和消费者新产品购买意愿模型，并对企业开展颠覆性创新提供了实践指导。
关键词：颠覆性创新；购买意愿；新能源汽车；燃油汽车；渐进性创新；创新感知；消费者创新性
作者简介：史丹，中国社会科学院工业经济研究所研究员，北京，100006；浙江财经大学-中国社会科学院大学浙江研究院研究员，杭州，310018；明星，中国社会科学院工业经济研究所助理研究员，通信作者；宁成浩，国家能源集团技术经济研究院高级工程师，北京，100006。
基金项目：国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”（72140001）; 中国社会科学院博士后创新项目“高低端颠覆性创新模式研究——以新能源汽车为例”; 中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科（产业经济学）项目
引用格式：史丹,明星,宁成浩.颠覆性创新感知对新能源和燃油汽车购买意愿的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(10):75-89.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.10.005.
Influence of Disruptive Innovation Perception on Purchase Intention of New Energy Vehicles and Fuel Vehicles
SHI Dan1,2, MING Xing1, NING Chenghao3
(1. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100006;
2. Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018;
3. CHN Energy Investment Group, Beijing 100006)
Abstract: Disruptive innovation is an effective way for enterprises to gain a competitive advantage. The attitude of consumers, especially mainstream consumers, is a critical factor that determines whether new energy vehicles (NEVs) can successfully replace fuel vehicles (FVs) and directly affects the decision-making of automobile manufacturers. Most existing studies consider the features of new products and consumers with rare concerns about old products. However, there are two types of new products in the automobile market as disruptive innovation: disruptive new products (NEVs) and incremental new products (FVs). This paper aims to investigate the impact of disruptive innovation perception on consumers’ purchase intentions of disruptive new products (NEVs) and incremental new products (FVs) and further verifies the mediating effect of incremental new product satisfaction and the moderating role of consumer innovation.
The findings based on the data analysis of 577 questionnaires are as follows. (1) Consumers have a higher purchase intention for NEVs than for FVs. (2) The perception of disruptive innovation directly promotes their intention to purchase disruptive new products and inhibits their purchase of incremental new products. (3) Consumer satisfaction with FVs partially mediates the moderating effect of disruptive innovation perceptions and purchase intentions. (4) Consumers with less innovation are more likely to be affected by the innovation perception of disruptive new products.
The conclusions enrich the consumer behavior theory and the disruptive innovation theory. In terms of the consumer behavior theory, this paper broadens the research scope of the consumer purchase intention model and confirms that consumers’ purchase intention for new products is influenced by their characteristics and perceptions of new product features and their attitudes toward old products. In terms of the disruptive innovation theory, it explores the model of consumers’ intention to purchase disruptive products, which is a valuable attempt from consumers’ perspective. In addition, it argues that the success of disruptive innovation lies in mainstream consumers rather than early ones. Therefore, disruptive innovation can only succeed if mainstream consumers perceive the novelty and usefulness of disruptive new products.
The conclusions have significant guidance for enterprises to engage in disruptive innovation. Enterprises can promote consumers’ purchase intention to disrupt new products by improving their perception of disruptive innovation. When engaging in disruptive innovation, they can highlight the functions that incremental products lack. When consumers perceive the features of disruptive innovation, they may become dissatisfied with incremental new products and tend to shift their purchases from incremental new products to disruptive ones.
Keywords: disruptive innovation; purchase intention; new energy vehicle; fuel vehicle; incremental innovation; innovation perception; consumer innovation
