制造业服务化的就业效应：空间关联、影响机制与异质性

吕越¹　于喆宁²　陈泳昌²　董康银³

（1. 对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院；2. 对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院；3. 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院）

内容提要：本文基于省级层面投入产出表测算得到的制造业服务化数据，与中国工业企业数据库匹配合并，得到2000—2013年省份-行业层面面板数据，采用动态空间杜宾模型实证探讨制造业服务化对中国制造业行业就业规模的影响效应。研究发现：制造业服务化会显著提升本区域的制造业就业规模，但对于空间关联区域的劳动力市场将产生“虹吸效应”，即降低空间关联区域的就业规模。机制分析发现，制造业服务化主要通过产品创新和市场规模两条渠道来影响制造业就业。异质性分析发现，对于东部地区以及非劳动密集型行业而言，制造业服务化对就业规模的扩大作用与负向空间溢出效应并存；对于中部地区以及劳动密集型行业而言，制造业服务化只存在负向的空间溢出效应；而对于西部地区来说，制造业服务化带来的就业效应尚未显现。拓展性分析发现，服务业集聚水平的提升以及服务业的不断开放，均能显著增强制造业服务化对本区域就业带来的提升效应，同时弱化对空间关联区域劳动力市场的虹吸效应。

关键词：制造业服务化；就业；产品创新；市场规模；虹吸效应

作者简介：吕越，对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院教授、博士生导师，北京，100029；于喆宁，对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院博士研究生；陈泳昌，对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院博士研究生；董康银，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国产业链供应链安全稳定战略研究”（21&ZD098）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球疫情大流行下国际国内价值链重构对中国的影响和应对策略”（72073025）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球价值链、创新驱动与制造业‘低端锁定’破局：成因、机制及应对策略”（71873031）；对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目（20JQ02）

引用格式：吕越,于喆宁,陈泳昌,等.制造业服务化的就业效应：空间关联、影响机制与异质性[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(1):93-110.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.01.006.

　　

　　

The Employment Effect of Manufacturing Servitization: Spatial Correlation, Influence Mechanism and Heterogeneity

LYU Yue, YU Zhening, CHEN Yongchang, DONG Kangyin

(University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029)

　　

　　Abstract: Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and development. This paper matches and merges the manufacturing servitization data based on provincial-level input-output tables with the Chinese industrial enterprises database to obtain the panel data at the province-industry level from 2000 to 2013. Then, it uses a dynamic spatial Durbin model to empirically explore the impact of manufacturing servitization on the labor market of Chinese manufacturing industries. The findings are shown as follows. Firstly, the benchmark regression reveals that manufacturing servitization significantly increases the scale of manufacturing employment in the region, but reduces the scale of employment in spatially related regions. This finding is still robust after replacing the spatial weight matrix and core explanatory variables, shrinking the tail treatment, and solving the endogeneity. Secondly, the mechanism analysis discovers that manufacturing servitization mainly affects employment product innovation and market size. On the one hand, manufacturing servitization helps to generate a series of new products, industries, and business forms. Expanding the scale of new products increases the input of required skills and specific types of work, and expands the labor demand within the region. At the same time, it may attract workers from surrounding areas to the region, which is not conducive to the labor market in spatially related regions. On the other hand, manufacturing servitization significantly improves the market size of the region, and has a significant negative correlation with the market size of spatially related regions, thus affecting the employment size of their labor market. Thirdly, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the expansion effect of manufacturing servitization on regional employment and the siphon effect on the spatially related regional labor market exist simultaneously in the eastern region. Moreover, manufacturing servitization only indirectly affects employment in the central region. Besides, neither the expansion effect of manufacturing servitization on regional employment nor the negative spillover effect on spatially related regions is apparent in the western region. Compared with the west and central regions, manufacturing servitization in the eastern regions has a significant regional promotion effect on employment and a negative spatial spillover effect. The internal reason may lie in the differences in the degree of industrial agglomeration and the opening up of the service industry. Fourthly, the expansion analysis shows that the improvement of the service industry agglomeration level and the opening up of the service industry will further enhance the employment promotion effect within the region, weaken the siphon effect of labor employment in spatially related regions, and slow down the negative impact on these regions.

　　Keywords: manufacturing servitization; employment; product innovation; market size; siphon effect