数字服务贸易壁垒与服务业就业

刘海燕　杨艳琳

（武汉大学）

摘要：数字服务贸易是推动服务业就业的重要抓手。各国出于保护本国产业发展和数据隐私安全等考量，倾向于出台一系列数字服务贸易限制性政策。本文基于2014—2024年中国服务业微观企业数据，实证分析了数字服务贸易壁垒对服务业就业的影响。研究结果表明，数字服务贸易壁垒对服务业就业具有抑制作用，且主要通过成本、技术创新以及市场竞争三个机制对服务业就业产生影响。本文还对细分企业所在行业及政策施行的具体领域进行了相关检验，检验结果表明，行业和细分政策领域差异均会对服务业的就业情况产生异质性影响。其中，数字化应用程度更高的服务行业受到的影响更甚。在服务业就业结构方面，数字服务贸易壁垒对不同技能和岗位劳动力的影响效应不同，中高技能劳动力和对于数字化技能素养要求较高的就业岗位受到的影响更大。就业是经济运行的“晴雨表”和经济增长的“稳定器”，为更好以经济增长促进就业稳定，应适度降低数字服务贸易壁垒。

关键词：数字服务贸易壁垒；服务业就业；成本；技术创新；市场竞争

作者简介：刘海燕，武汉大学经济与管理学院博士研究生，通信作者，武汉，430072；杨艳琳，武汉大学经济发展研究中心/国家发展战略研究院教授，博士生导师。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重点项目“普惠金融发展促进巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的机制与路径研究”（21AJL007）

引用格式：刘海燕,杨艳琳.数字服务贸易壁垒与服务业就业[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(2):121-137.

Digital Services Trade Barriers and Employment in the Service Sector

LIU Haiyan, YANG Yanlin

(Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072)

Abstract: The service sector has become the largest “reservoir” for employment in China. Based on micro-level enterprise data from China’s service sector from 2014 to 2024, this paper empirically examines the impact of digital services trade barriers (DSTBs) on employment in the service sector. Then, it employs the OECD Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index to measure DSTBs and conducts baseline regression tests using cross-country panel data. This paper primarily analyzes the pathways through which DSTBs impede employment in China’s service sector, including their underlying mechanisms, heterogeneous effects, and deeper implications for employment structure.

The findings indicate that DSTBs inhibit employment in the service sector. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. DSTBs affect employment in the service sector primarily through three mechanisms: cost, technological innovation, and market competition. This paper also conducts tests by categorizing industries and specific policy domains. Empirical evidence shows that services with higher levels of digital application are more significantly affected. Specifically, telecommunications, along with computer and information services, experience the most severe negative impact, followed by digital service sectors, while business services and other technical services are the least affected. In terms of specific policy domains, infrastructure and connectivity barriers, as well as intellectual property-related barriers, exert the most significant influence. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that differences across industries and policy domains lead to varied impacts on employment in the service sector. Further analysis of the employment structure within service enterprises shows that the impact of DSTBs varies among workers with different skill levels and job roles, with medium- to high-skilled workers and positions requiring higher digital literacy experiencing more pronounced effects. Overall, higher DSTBs are less conducive to fostering employment growth in the service sector.

The marginal contributions are as follows. First, it constitutes a valuable contribution to research on DSTBs and employment in the service sector. Second, it extends the analysis of the employment effects of services trade from a digital-economy perspective. Third, it supplements existing research by constructing a new theoretical framework. Finally, through heterogeneity tests and analyses across industries and policy domains, it provides regulators with references for formulating more tailored policies.

Based on the conclusions, this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations. Employment serves as both a barometer of economic performance and a stabilizer of economic growth. To further promote employment stability through economic growth, it is advisable to moderately reduce DSTBs, focus on mechanisms such as cost fluctuations, technological innovation, and market competition, and pay attention to the differentiated characteristics of specific policy domains and industries in which enterprises operate.

Keywords: digital services trade barrier; employment in the service sector; cost; technological innovation; market competition

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