低碳转型、绿色再贷款与宏观审慎政策

曹春玉¹　朱孟楠²

（1.上海立信会计金融学院金融学院；2.厦门大学经济学院）

内容提要：本文构建环境动态随机一般均衡模型，通过参数校准和数值模拟，研究绿色再贷款与宏观审慎政策应对低碳转型冲击的政策组合效应。研究发现，引入碳税有助于减排，降低银行棕色资产规模，但对实体经济投资及产出的低碳转型效应不足。对碳税逆周期调节可提升绿色投资与产出，但造成银行资产规模及价格波动。绿色再贷款规模的逆周期调节能够减少碳排放和污染存量，但以银行资产波动为成本。再贷款利率逆周期调节在助力减排和提升产出的同时，导致银行净资产波动。再贷款搭配准备金率及资本充足率等宏观审慎政策的逆周期调节有效促进低碳转型，且对银行净资产具有温和的提升效应，有助于应对气候风险，维持金融稳定。进一步分析结果表明，对再贷款的鼓励性调节比惩罚性调节导致的宏观经济及金融波动更小。当低碳转型成为长期政策后，再贷款搭配宏观审慎政策组合有效促进减排，缓解转型冲击带来的宏观经济金融波动。在再贷款逆周期调节的基础上，准备金率和资本充足率逆周期调节的动态协调能够有效减少宏观经济和金融体系的福利损失。

关键词：气候变化；低碳转型；绿色再贷款；宏观审慎政策；碳税

作者简介：曹春玉，上海立信会计金融学院金融学院副教授，上海，201209；朱孟楠，厦门大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，通信作者，厦门，361005。

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目“重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下的全球金融风险溢出及其管理研究”(72073113）

引用格式：曹春玉,朱孟楠.低碳转型、绿色再贷款与宏观审慎政策[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(5):14-36.

Low-Carbon Transition, Green Refinancing, and Macroprudential Policies

CAO Chunyu¹, ZHU Mengnan²

(1. Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai 201209;

2. Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005)

Abstract: Climate change increasingly impacts the global economy, making it essential to understand the policy effects of carbon taxes, green refinancing, and their coordination with other macroprudential policies for the low-carbon transition. This paper constructs an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the interplay of these policy measures and assess their combined effects on low-carbon transition and financial stability.

The findings reveal that carbon taxes help reduce emissions and the scale of banks’ brown assets but exert insufficient effects on stimulating real investment and output for the low-carbon transition. Countercyclical adjustments to carbon taxes can enhance green investment and output but cause fluctuations in the scale and price of bank assets. However, the adjustments to the scale of green refinancing reduce carbon emissions and pollution stocks but come at the cost of increased bank asset volatility. Moreover, the adjustments to refinancing rates help reduce emissions and increase output, yet they also cause fluctuations in banks’ net assets. Combining refinancing with countercyclical adjustments to reserve requirements and capital adequacy ratios effectively promotes the low-carbon transition and modestly enhances banks’ net assets, thereby aiding financial stability amid climate risk shocks. Further analysis shows that incentive-based adjustments to refinancing lead to smaller macroeconomic and financial fluctuations compared to penalty-based ones.

Based on these conclusions, the paper offers the following policy implications: first, deepen the development of the carbon market by expanding industry coverage and building a comprehensive carbon trading system; second,introduce carbon taxes promptly to complement and reinforce existing carbon pricing mechanisms; third, formulate monetary and financial incentive policies to guide financial institutions in increasing financing support for low-carbon projects; and finally, strengthen environmental and climate risk assessment and supervision.

This paper focuses on the coordination effects between green refinancing and other macroprudential policies. It innovatively incorporates both incentive-and penalty-based mechanisms into the policy analysis framework, deepens the research on the dynamic effects of policy tools, expands the welfare analysis dimensions of low-carbon transition policies, and proposes a coordinated pathway that balances macroeconomic stability with financial stability.The potential contributions include investigating the macroeconomic and financial stability effects of carbon taxes and countercyclical refinancing adjustments under climate risk shocks; exploring the policy combination effects of green refinancing with countercyclical adjustments to reserve requirements and capital adequacy ratios for commercial banks; and comparing the incentive-and penalty-based mechanisms of countercyclical refinancing adjustments as well as the short-term and long-term effects of green low-carbon transition policy combinations, thereby providing valuable theoretical insights for balancing macroeconomic policies to address climate risk shocks.

Keywords: climate change; low-carbon transition; green refinancing; macroprudential policy; carbon tax

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