电商下乡有助于农业企业创业吗？

——基于“电子商务进农村综合示范”政策的准自然实验

陈 佩　张为付

（南京财经大学）

内容提要：本文基于2000—2021年中国2 658个县级行政区的面板数据，结合Python获取的新增农业企业数据，以“电子商务进农村综合示范”政策为准自然实验，采用多期双重差分法，深入剖析电商下乡对农业企业创业的影响及机制。研究结果显示，电商下乡能够促进农业企业创业。经过一系列稳健性检验后，上述结论依然成立。机制分析结果表明，电商下乡通过缓解金融和社会资本约束、提升农村地区电商交易水平两条路径，促进农业企业创业。异质性分析结果表明，电商下乡对营商环境较差、教育程度高、创新水平高的地区以及中小微规模的农业企业创业具有更大的促进作用。本文的研究结论为塑造农业企业竞争优势、促进乡村产业繁荣以及助力统一大市场构建提供了依据。

关键词：电商下乡；农业企业创业；金融资本约束；社会资本约束；电商交易水平

作者简介：陈佩，南京财经大学粮食和物资学院博士研究生，南京，210003；张为付，南京财经大学国际经贸学院教授、博士生导师，通信作者。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“信息技术变革赋能中国对外贸易高质量发展的机制与路径研究”（21BJY052）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“家庭农场经营规模扩张：行为逻辑、潜在效应及效率改进”（72173060）；江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“江苏以科技创新驱动产业链供应链优化升级研究”（21ZD001）

引用格式：陈佩,张为付.电商下乡有助于农业企业创业吗?——基于“电子商务进农村综合示范”政策的准自然实验[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(4):99-116.

Will E-commerce Help Agribusiness Entrepreneurship?

—A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project

CHEN Pei, ZHANG Weifu

(Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210003)

Abstract: Expanding e-commerce in rural areas is an effective means of eliminating barriers to the establishment of a unified national market. It can promote the comprehensive docking and integration of new types of agribusiness entities and e-commerce, foster the synergistic development of online and offline channels, and open up new market space for agribusiness entrepreneurship.

Based on theoretical analysis, this paper empirically examines the impact of e-commerce in rural areas on agribusiness entrepreneurship based on the panel data of 2,658 counties in China from 2000 to 2021, as well as the data of new agribusinesses obtained by Python. In addition, it considers the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project (NRECDP) as an exogenous shock to analyze how e-commerce in rural areas affects agribusiness entrepreneurship through the channels of capital supply and market demand expansion. Finally, this paper examines the heterogeneous impact of e-commerce in rural areas on agribusiness entrepreneurship at the county and enterprise levels.

The results show that e-commerce in rural areas helps promote agribusiness entrepreneurship in counties, with a significant increase in the number of entrepreneurial agribusinesses in the pilot areas. After a series of robustness tests, the above conclusions are still valid. E-commerce in rural areas improves the level of e-commerce transactions in rural areas and then promotes agribusiness entrepreneurship. The impact of e-commerce in rural areas on agribusiness entrepreneurship is heterogeneous, which is more significant in non-e-commerce demonstration counties and those with high education or innovation levels. Additionally, e-commerce in rural areas is more conducive to promoting the entrepreneurship of small and micro agribusinesses.

The innovations of this paper are as follows. First, from the demand and supply perspectives, it discusses the impact of e-commerce in rural areas on agribusiness entrepreneurship through the mechanisms of financial constraints and e-commerce transaction levels, extending the boundaries of previous research. Second, the NRECDP is used as a quasi-natural experiment, and the multi-period difference-in-differences method is utilized to reduce the endogeneity of the model. Third, by combining macro agribusiness entrepreneurship data with county-level panel data, it addresses the limitations of research based on micro-level household data and provides stronger empirical evidence at the macro level for agricultural development issues.

This paper puts forward the following policy insights. E-commerce in rural areas should be actively promoted to facilitate the circulation of agricultural products in urban areas. Meanwhile, the development of financial and social capital should be coordinated to alleviate difficulties faced by agribusinesses in capital financing. Moreover, efforts should be made to enhance the self-reliance of micro, small, and medium-sized agribusinesses and promote their scientific and technological research.

Keywords: e-commerce in rural areas; agribusiness entrepreneurship; financial capital constraint; social capital constraint; e-commerce transaction level

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