政府数字治理如何助推城市低碳转型？

——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

李艳姗　刘红　朱为利

（辽宁大学）

摘要：政府数字治理是数字变革背景下政府治理模式创新和治理方式现代化的重要举措，旨在通过制度驱动和技术赋能推动城市低碳转型。本文选取2006—2023年中国273个地级及以上城市面板数据，设定双重机器学习模型，基于信息惠民试点政策考察政府数字治理对城市低碳转型的影响及其作用机制。研究结果显示，政府数字治理能够推动城市低碳转型。机制检验结果表明，政府数字治理能够通过提高环境治理效率、激励双重技术创新和增强公众环境关注，推动城市低碳转型。异质性分析结果表明，政府数字治理对城市低碳转型的促进作用在外围城市、资源型城市、数字基础设施较好的城市和数字人才禀赋较为丰富的城市中更强。本文的研究不仅为政府数字治理的环境效应研究提供了新的理论阐释和经验证据，也为数字变革背景下推动政府治理现代化、增强有为政府赋能城市低碳转型提供新思路。

关键词：政府数字治理；城市低碳转型；环境治理效率；技术创新；公众环境关注

作者简介：李艳姗，辽宁大学国际经济政治学院博士研究生，沈阳，110036；刘红，辽宁大学国际经济政治学院教授、博士生导师，通信作者；朱为利，辽宁大学国际经济政治学院博士研究生。

引用格式：李艳姗,刘红,朱为利.政府数字治理如何助推城市低碳转型?——基于双重机器学习的因果推断[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(4):115-130.

How can Government Digital Governance Promote Urban Low-Carbon Transformation?

—Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

LI Yanshan, LIU Hong, ZHU Weili

(Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036)

Abstract: Against the backdrop of ongoing global climate change and profound adjustments in the international economic landscape, actively promoting urban low-carbon transformation (ULCT) is not only a key measure to mitigate the climate crisis but also a core path to achieve coordinated economic, social, and environmental development. As the primary driver of economic and social development, the government plays an indispensable role in ULCT. However, traditional governance models still struggle to effectively address a series of practical challenges encountered during this transformation, such as poor coordination between government departments, incomplete multi-stakeholder collaboration mechanisms, and insufficient innovation in low-carbon technologies. Therefore, government digital governance, as a new governance model, is gradually becoming a driving force for ULCT.

From the perspective of the National Pilot Policy of Information Benefiting the People, this paper uses panel data from 273 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2023 to construct a double machine learning model, thoroughly examining the impact and mechanisms of government digital governance on ULCT. The findings confirm that government digital governance can promote ULCT, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of endogeneity treatments and robustness checks. The mechanism test indicates that improving environmental governance efficiency, incentivizing both digital and green technological innovation, and enhancing public environmental awareness are three important pathways. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that when urban characteristics and digital environments differ, the impact of government digital governance on ULCT is heterogeneous. From the perspective of urban characteristics, government digital governance has a stronger promoting effect on low-carbon transformation in peripheral cities and resource-based cities; from the perspective of the digital environment, the promoting effect is stronger in cities with better digital infrastructure and stronger digital talent endowment.

To empower urban low-carbon transformation, the paper proposes several tailored policy recommendations, including accelerating the process of government digital governance, and deepening the application of pilot policies related to government digital governance; leveraging the crucial role of government digital governance in enhancing environmental governance efficiency, incentivizing dual technological innovation, and increasing public environmental awareness; and addressing the impact of heterogeneity in urban characteristics and digital environments.

The marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in two aspects. First,it explores the effects of government digital governance on ULCT, providing new ideas for modernizing government governance and promoting sustainable urban development. Second, it examines the intrinsic mechanisms, clarifying targeted policy implications to advance the modernization of government governance and enhance the capacity of an effective government to empower urban low-carbon transition in the context of digital transformation.

Keywords: government digital governance; urban low-carbon transformation; environmental governance efficiency; technological innovation; public environmental awareness

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