银行竞争如何影响城市经济韧性？

张杰¹　孙涛¹　范雨婷²

（1.首都经济贸易大学；2.赛迪研究院）

摘要：当前国际政治经济不确定性增强，中国经济展现出特有韧性和活力，金融行业尤其是银行业作为推进经济高质量发展的基础行业，对增强中国城市经济韧性起到了重要作用。本文基于2010—2023年中国279个城市的面板数据，研究了银行竞争对城市经济韧性的影响。研究结果表明，银行竞争对本地城市经济韧性的影响呈现出明显的U型关系。当前银行竞争已经越过拐点，对城市经济韧性起到了促进作用。机制分析表明，要素配置优化与城市创业活力在银行竞争影响城市经济韧性中发挥传导效应，且存在边际效应差异。异质性分析结果显示，市场化水平高、数字化水平高的城市经济韧性受银行竞争的影响更大。空间效应分析结果表明，本地银行竞争对相邻城市经济韧性的空间溢出效应呈现出倒U型变化，其对城市经济韧性的影响边界大致在500千米内，并表现出空间距离衰减特征。本文以银行竞争模式变化为视角，为提升城市经济韧性的实现路径提供了经验证据，也为区域间经济韧性协同增效的政策设计提供了参考。

关键词：银行竞争；城市经济韧性；空间溢出；要素配置；创业活力

作者简介：张杰，首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院教授、博士生导师，北京，100070；孙涛，首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院博士研究生；范雨婷，赛迪研究院赛迪顾问城市经济研究中心高级咨询师，通信作者，北京，100048。

基金项目：北京市社会科学基金重点项目“中央商务区产业蓝皮书（2026）——多元融合推进优质发展”（25JCB036）

引用格式：张杰，孙涛，范雨婷. 银行竞争如何影响城市经济韧性？[J]. 经济与管理研究，2026，47（8）：71-86.

How Does Bank Competition Affect Urban Economic Resilience?

ZHANG Jie¹, SUN Tao¹, FAN Yuting²

(1. Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070;

2. CCID Research Institute, Beijing 100048)

Abstract: As the basic spatial units of China's economic and social development, cities have attracted increasing scholarly attention regarding their ability to enhance the resilience of economic systems and maintain sustained development vitality in the face of external risks. Economic resilience requires that the urban economic system possess not only self-recovery capabilities but also the ability to dynamically adjust and ultimately evolve to a higher level. As the lifeblood of the real economy, finance can drive urban economic growth, improve the quality of the urban economy, and stimulate economic vitality, thus becoming a vital factor influencing the urban economic system. With the rapid growth of bank branches and the vigorous development of digital technology, the banking system has undergone a transformation from a traditional differentiated competition pattern to one characterized by high-quality competition. However, current research mainly focuses on the impact of bank competition on urban economic growth, while its effects on economic resilience and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

This paper uses 279 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2010 to 2023 as the research sample to examine the impact of bank competition on urban economic resilience. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is employed to measure bank competition, while the sensitivity index is used to assess urban economic resilience. Empirical analysis is conducted using fixed effects models, mechanism models, and spatial Durbin models. The results show that bank competition exerts a nonlinear U-shaped effect on local urban economic resilience and that the current levels of bank competition in China have already passed the inflection point, showing an enhancing effect. Mechanism analysis reveals that improved factor allocation and optimized entrepreneurial vitality serve as key channels through which bank competition affects urban economic resilience. Heterogeneity tests indicate that this nonlinear effect primarily operates in cities with high marketization and digitalization levels. From a spatial perspective, the spatial spillover effects of local bank competition on neighboring cities' economic resilience follow an inverted U-shaped pattern, with a spatial reach of about 500 km.

The marginal contributions are threefold. First, this paper focuses on bank competition in the context of the ongoing transformation of China's bank competition landscape, enriching research on the influencing factors of urban economic resilience. Second, it systematically clarifies the underlying mechanisms by incorporating improved factor allocation and optimized entrepreneurial vitality into a unified analytical framework. Third, by analyzing the nonlinear spatial spillover effects of bank competition on urban economic resilience, it addresses the shortcoming of previous discussions that have predominantly examined this relationship from a non-spatial perspective, providing theoretical guidance and practical evidence for accelerating the construction of resilient cities and maintaining the stable operation of the economic system.

Keywords: bank competition; urban economic resilience; spatial spillover; factor allocation; entrepreneurial vitality

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