新质生产力形成的微观机制与空间演化

——基于集聚外部性的计算实验

薛领　马业婷　赵威　孙欣彤

（北京大学）

摘要：新质生产力是驱动经济高质量发展的核心动力，其形成不仅依赖技术进步，更依赖知识溢出、资源共享与要素匹配等空间外部性所形成的动态反馈过程。然而，现有研究对于不同类型外部性如何通过企业微观行为影响区域生产效率演化与空间结构形成，仍缺乏系统解释。本文突破新古典一般均衡框架，基于动态非均衡视角，融合空间经济学与复杂系统理论，构建多主体（agent）计算实验模型。借鉴遗传算法思想，以基因编码方式刻画企业知识结构演化，识别学习、共享与匹配三类外部性对区域生产效率的差异化作用。研究发现，学习外部性产生“拉高效应”；共享与匹配外部性分别引致“局部集聚”与“加速—饱和效应”；学习和共享协同产生“倍增效应”；三类外部性共同作用呈现“叠加效应”。本文从微观行为机制与动态仿真层面揭示了外部性驱动新质生产力空间生成的作用路径，为因地制宜发展新质生产力、优化区域经济布局提供了可量化的理论依据与政策参考。

关键词：新质生产力；集聚外部性；空间经济学；基于agent的计算实验；遗传算法

作者简介：薛领，北京大学政府管理学院教授、博士生导师，北京，100871；马业婷，北京大学政府管理学院博士研究生，通信作者；赵威，北京大学政府管理学院博士研究生；孙欣彤，北京大学政府管理学院博士研究生。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新时代实施区域协调发展战略研究”（22AZD043）

引用格式：薛领，马业婷，赵威，等. 新质生产力形成的微观机制与空间演化：基于集聚外部性的计算实验［J］. 经济与管理研究，2026，47（9）：18-32.

Micro-Mechanisms and Spatial Evolution of New Quality Productive Forces Formation

—A Computational Experiment Based on Agglomeration Externalities

XUE Ling, MA Yeting, ZHAO Wei, SUN Xintong

(Peking University, Beijing 100871)

Abstract: New quality productive forces (NQPFs) spur high-quality economic development, characterized by the synergistic evolution of factor upgrading, technical innovation, spatial restructuring, and new production forms. Their formation rests on technical progress and dynamic feedback from spatial externalities, such as knowledge spillovers, resource sharing, and factor matching. However, existing research still lacks a systematic explanation of how each externality shapes regional efficiency and spatial configurations through firm behavior.

Moving beyond the neoclassical general equilibrium framework, this paper adopts a dynamic disequilibrium perspective and integrates spatial economics with complex systems theory to develop a two-region, multi-agent computational-experimental model incorporating a genetic algorithm. The model simulates learning through binary genetic encoding and the crossover, absorption, and updating of knowledge loci; characterizes sharing through the decline in fixed costs induced by an increase in the number of firms; and captures matching through the local alignment of firms, labor, technology, and services. Separate switches set different scenarios and identify the net and joint effects of the three types of externalities in varied combinations.

The findings are as follows. First, learning externalities renew firm knowledge through spillovers and recombination, lifting the efficiency frontier. Firms entering core regions catch up by recombining knowledge, shifting regional efficiency growth from spatial change to knowledge-led growth and driving a dynamic leap in NQPFs. Second, sharing externalities cut fixed costs and reinforce firm agglomeration. Rather than directly creating knowledge, they provide a low-cost spatial base for learning and innovation. Third, matching externalities quickly raise regional efficiency by improving the use of labor, technology, and services. Fourth, when all types of externalities work together, knowledge renewal, lower costs, and better allocation reinforce one another. Regional efficiency growth becomes an endogenous process driven by knowledge accumulation, technical upgrading, and spatial agglomeration. Fifth, learning and sharing raise efficiency in peripheral regions through internal knowledge exchange and cost sharing. Multiple externalities can extend growth gains from core to peripheral regions, but strong agglomeration effects may still widen regional gaps.

Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes the following recommendations. Policy tools should shift from single measures to differentiated packages. Core regions should build dynamic knowledge innovation zones and common technology platforms to deepen links between technical and industrial innovation. Peripheral regions should build local learning and sharing networks around their own strengths and strengthen ties with core nodes. Cross-region platforms should support orderly flows of knowledge, data, and talent, providing better services to improve factor matching. This paper maps the micro-level pathway through which externalities shape the spatial formation of NQPFs and gives measurable support and policy guidance for place-based growth and a better regional economic layout.

Keywords: new quality productive forces; agglomeration externality; spatial economics; agent-based computational experiment; genetic algorithm

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