国家级城市群发展规划对省界毗邻县经济发展的影响研究

杨建坤^1,2　张学良²　魏新月³

（1. 安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院；2. 上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院；3. 交通运输部科学研究院）

　　内容提要：促进行政边界地区经济发展，是贯彻党的二十大精神关于区域协调发展理念的应有之义。本文以国家级城市群发展规划的推行作为政策冲击，分别群发展规划的县和未纳入城市群发展规划的县作为处理组和对照组，基于县域层面的夜间灯光数据和宏观数据，采用多期双重差分模型，评估城市群发展规划是否推动了省界毗邻县的经济发展，并探究两者之间的作用机制。研究结果表明，城市群发展规划有利于省界毗邻县的经济发展。该结果经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析结果表明，城市群发展规划虽然削弱了省界毗邻县的市场潜力，但是加强了省界毗邻县与群内其他地区的经济联系，同时优化了省界毗邻县与群内其他地区的产业分工，即城市群发展规划对省界毗邻县整体上表现为辐射效应多于虹吸效应的正面影响，进而促进了省界毗邻县的经济发展。异质性检验结果表明，当前城市群发展规划虽然整体未促进西部省界毗邻县的经济发展，但是仍有利于经济欠发达省界毗邻县。另外，目前的城市群发展规划可以促进两省交界县的经济发展，但并没有对三省及以上交界县的经济发展产生显著的影响。

　　

　　关键词：城市群；行政边界效应；区域协调发展；辐射效应；虹吸效应

　　

　　作者简介：杨建坤，安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院讲师，蚌埠，233030；上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院博士后，上海，200433；张学良，上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院教授、博士生导师；魏新月，交通运输部科学研究院助理研究员，通信作者，北京，100029。

　　基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“区域协调发展背景下城市群对省界毗邻县经济发展的影响及机制研究”（72303002）；安徽省高等学校科学研究重点项目“全国统一大市场背景下长三角城市群建设对安徽省毗邻地区产业联动发展的影响研究：理论机制与经验证据”（2023AH050221）；上海财经大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“城市群对城市间创新差距的影响研究：效应评估、 机制检验与推动路径”（2023110527）

　　引用格式：杨建坤,张学良,魏新月.国家级城市群发展规划对省界毗邻县经济发展的影响研究[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(12):44-66.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.12.003.

　　

　　

Impact of National-level Urban Cluster Development Plan on the Economic Growth of Counties Adjacent to Provincial Borders

YANG Jiankun^1,2, ZHANG Xueliang², WEI Xinyue³

(1. Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030;

2. Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433;

3. China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029)

　　

　　Abstract: In the context of coordinating regional development and constructing a new pattern of regional development, how to crack the problem of economic growth in areas adjacent to provincial borders is a key task for the in-depth implementation of the national strategy for coordinated regional development.

　　This paper takes the implementation of the national-level urban cluster development plan (the Plan for short) as a policy shock, and treats counties adjacent to provincial borders included in the Plan and those not included as the treatment and control groups, respectively. Based on the nighttime light data at the county level and macro data, it adopts a multi-period difference-in-differences model to assess whether the Plan promotes the economic growth of the counties adjacent to provincial borders and to explore the underlying mechanism. The results confirm the promotion effect and still hold after a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis shows that although the Plan weakens the market potential of counties adjacent to provincial borders, it strengthens the economic links and optimizes the industrial division of labor between these counties and other areas within the clusters. The heterogeneity test shows that the current Plan, even if it does not promote the economic growth of counties adjacent to provincial borders in the western region, is still beneficial to those adjacent to economically underdeveloped provincial borders. Given that most of the western region is still economically backward, the inclusion in the Plan is still an effective way for economic development. In addition, the Plan can significantly contribute to the economic development of counties bordering two provincial-level regions, but has little impact on the economic development of those bordering three or more provincial-level regions.

　　This paper provides evidence that the construction of urban clusters is conducive to the economic growth of areas adjacent to provincial borders and analyzes the channels. It also points out the negative impacts of the Plan on the development of areas adjacent to provincial borders and provides a reference for the rational integration of these areas into urban clusters. At this point, it is necessary to guide local governments in establishing a mechanism for compensation and sharing of benefits. The central region needs to transmit benefits to the peripheral regions to make up for the damage to the interests of the peripheral regions. In addition, it is necessary to further establish and improve the governmental coordination mechanism within the urban clusters, and jointly promote comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development to realize a new pattern of coordinated development in the clusters.

　　Keywords: urban cluster; administrative boundary effect; coordinated regional development; radiation effect; siphon effect

　　

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