深化零基预算改革的战略价值、现实挑战与政策建议

马蔡琛　白铂

（南开大学）

内容提要：在全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的背景下，党的二十届三中全会作出“深化零基预算改革”的重要部署。综观全球预算改革历程，零基预算历经数次兴起，并逐步从传统零基预算走向新零基预算。在财政收支矛盾加剧的现实背景下，实施零基预算改革具有战略价值。然而，预算的技术理性改革仍是艰巨的，零基预算复杂的编制流程、自下而上的编制顺序、刚性支出的存在以及现实决策约束，构成了实施零基预算的现实挑战。零基预算未来的改革仍需要从优化预算流程、加强技术理性以及应对有限财力等方面统筹谋划，进而为健全预算制度提供有力支撑。

关键词：财政改革；预算改革；零基预算；新零基预算；财政资源统筹；现代财政管理

作者简介：马蔡琛，南开大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，天津，300071；白铂，南开大学经济学院博士研究生。

基金项目：研究阐释党的二十届三中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大专项“健全预算制度加强财政资源和预算统筹研究”（24ZDA038）

引用格式：马蔡琛,白铂.深化零基预算改革的战略价值、现实挑战与政策建议[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(11):3-15.

Strategic Value, Practical Challenges, and Policy Recommendations of Deepening Zero-based Budgeting Reform

MA Caichen, BAI Bo

(Nankai University, Tianjin 300071)

Abstract: Traditional budgetary decision-making has long relied on incremental spending. This approach not only easily fosters a “use it or lose it” mentality among spending departments but also can lead to a systemic trap of “pointless expansion” of budgetary expenditures. Against the backdrop of increasingly intensified contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure, deepening zero-based budgeting reform, coordinating fiscal resources, and optimizing resource allocation are crucial for improving the effectiveness of budget governance and building a solid fiscal governance system. The evolution of global budget reform reveals that zero-based budgeting has gradually evolved from its early traditional model to a new stage that integrates modern governance concepts. Therefore, this paper begins with the practical history of zero-based budgeting reform, systematically sorts out its core characteristics at different stages, and deeply analyzes the profound impact and transformative effects of the reform on the budget management system.

However, technically rational budgetary reform remains arduous, and zero-based budgeting reform still faces multiple practical challenges. First, limited budget preparation time and capacity struggle to cope with the complex formulation process of zero-based budgeting, which may weaken the effectiveness of the zero-based budgeting system and make it difficult to optimize resource allocation. Second, the bottom-up formulation sequence of zero-based budgeting conflicts with the top-down strategic planning, which may force budget readjustments. Furthermore, with the growing proportion of rigid expenditures year by year, the limited applicability of zero-based budgeting will limit departments’ ability to allocate resources. Finally, the public sector’s multiple objectives and limited real-world information may weaken the decision-making rationality of zero-based budgeting.

As for future reform paths, it is necessary to address the above-mentioned incompatibilities and better leverage the advantages of the zero-based budgeting system in light of China’s actual conditions. Specifically, an effective mechanism should be established to integrate zero-based budgeting with the current budget system, covering both scheduling and revenue-expenditure classification. Efforts shall be made to accurately grasp the key points of integrating zero-based budgeting with performance budgeting and medium-term budgeting, strengthen the restraining effect of the medium-term budgeting on the annual budgeting, and ensure the core position of the financial department in budget allocation decisions. The application scope of zero-based budgeting should be expanded by establishing a sunset review and a fiscal resource coordination mechanism. Overall, grounded in the close integration of theory and practice, this paper deeply examines the application mechanism of zero-based budgeting and its actual application in budget management across countries. The findings can serve as a practical lever for optimizing fiscal resource allocation and provide valuable insights for improving the budget system.

Keywords: budget system; zero-based budgeting; new zero-based budgeting; fiscal resource coordination; modern fiscal management

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