耐心资本何以赋能制造业产业链供应链现代化？

潘艺

（中国社会科学院大学）

摘要：耐心资本能否匹配制造业产业链供应链现代化周期长、风险高、重研发的内在需求，尚缺乏系统论证。基于2015—2024年沪深A股制造业上市企业数据，本文构建“耐心资本”与“产业链供应链现代化水平”度量指标，检验二者关系及作用机制。结果表明：耐心资本提升了制造业产业链供应链现代化水平；作用机制方面，耐心资本通过优化高技术人才队伍、增强自主创新能力、提升全要素生产率的路径发挥作用；异质性方面，该效应在稳定发展阶段、一体化程度较高、公平竞争程度较高及市场化进程较快地区的企业中更强，关系型债权融资的促进作用大于稳定型股权融资。据此，本文提出构建链式支持体系、发展债权型耐心资本工具、优化制度环境及差异化配置等政策建议。

关键词：耐心资本；产业链供应链；全要素生产率；制造业；现代化

作者简介：潘艺，中国社会科学院大学研究生院博士研究生，北京，102488。

基金项目：中国社会科学院重大创新工程“中国制造业企业全要素生产率研究”（2101000100020086）；中国社会科学院重点登峰战略项目“企业管理与会计学优势学科建设”（210203005）

引用格式：潘艺. 耐心资本何以赋能制造业产业链供应链现代化？［J］. 经济与管理研究，2026，47（9）：33-48.

How Does Patient Capital Empower Manufacturing Industrial and Supply Chain Modernization?

PAN Yi

(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488)

Abstract: There remains a lack of theoretical argumentation regarding whether patient capital can meet the demands of manufacturing industrial and supply chain modernization, characterized by long cycles, high risks, and heavy research and development investment. Existing studies on industrial and supply chain modernization have centered on digital finance and new quality productive forces, largely overlooking long-term capital. The literature on patient capital has examined firm-level innovation and supply chain resilience separately, resulting in insufficient connection. Using panel data from A-share listed manufacturing firms in China from 2015 to 2024, this paper constructs an entropy-weighted composite index of industrial and supply chain modernization across five dimensions: specialization, reliability, flexibility, resilience, and security. Patient capital aggregates stable equity holdings (the combined shareholding ratio of social security funds, Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors, insurers, and enterprise annuities) and relational debt (the ratio of long-term liabilities to total liabilities). Industry-year fixed-effects models with industry-clustered standard errors are employed throughout.

The findings indicate that patient capital enhances manufacturing industrial and supply chain modernization. Endogeneity analysis and robustness checks—alternative dependent variable, alternative independent variable, subsample restrictions, and multi-level clustering—reinforce the main conclusion. Mechanism analysis reveals that this positive effect operates by enhancing high-tech human capital, strengthening innovation capacity, and consequently raising total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis confirms that this effect is stronger among firms in the stable stage, as well as in regions with higher market competition and faster marketization; relational debt plays a greater promotional role than stable equity holdings. These findings carry clear policy implications: establishing a tiered and category-based chain support system for patient capital, prioritizing debt-oriented instruments, and advancing regionally differentiated institutional reforms.

The potential marginal contributions of this paper are threefold. First, it innovatively constructs an evaluation model for the modernization level of manufacturing industrial and supply chains, providing a quantifiable analytical framework and methodological reference for relevant research. Second, by quantitatively testing the causal relationship between long-term investments and the level of industrial and supply chain modernization, it broadens the scope from emerging industries to manufacturing supply chain restructuring, enriching the theoretical framework of the interdisciplinary field of industrial finance. Third, it elucidates the underlying mechanisms and explores the differentiated effects from the dual perspectives of firms' development and the external environment, beneficial for targeted policy implementation. This paper provides a theoretical basis and practical solutions for manufacturing industrial and supply chains modernization, as well as empirical support for government departments in formulating and refining relevant policy frameworks.

Keywords: patient capital; industrial and supply chains; total factor productivity; manufacturing; modernization

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