土地征收制度改革与产业结构扭曲度治理

——基于要素优化配置的视角

姚鹏1　田志进2　孙久文3

（1.曲阜师范大学；2.中国社会科学院大学；3.中国人民大学）

内容提要：土地是经济社会发展的物质基础，其合理流动和科学配置对产业发展具有重要引领作用。本文基于2015年开始推行的土地征收制度改革试点，匹配县级宏观数据库和土地交易微观数据库，从土地要素优化配置的视角出发，探究土地征收制度改革对产业结构扭曲度治理的内在机理和实践成效。研究结果表明，土地征收制度改革通过降低土地价格扭曲程度、优化用地结构减轻地区产业结构扭曲度。进一步，本文使用广义随机森林中的因果森林模型进行个体处理效应的差异性分析。异质性分析结果表明，改革的治理效果受到地区发展定位、财政收支结构、自然地理条件禀赋和市场化程度的影响。本文的研究结论为推进土地要素市场化配置和发挥有为政府调控作用提供了理论借鉴和政策参考。

关键词：土地要素市场化改革；土地征收；用地结构；土地配置效率；产业结构扭曲

作者简介：姚鹏，曲阜师范大学经济学院教授，日照，276800；田志进，中国社会科学院大学博士研究生，北京，102488；孙久文，中国人民大学应用经济学院教授、博士生导师，北京，100872。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“水资源刚性约束驱动黄河流域产业转型升级的机理、路径与对策研究”（23BJL117）；山东省泰山学者工程专项经费（tsqn202312180）

引用格式：姚鹏,田志进,孙久文.土地征收制度改革与产业结构扭曲度治理——基于要素优化配置的视角[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(9):39-55.

Reform of Land Expropriation System and Governance of Industrial Structure Distortions

—A Perspective of Optimal Allocation of Factors

YAO Peng¹, TIAN Zhijin², SUN Jiuwen³

(1. Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800;

2. University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488;

3. Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872)

Abstract: Under the dual land ownership system and driven by horizontal benchmarking competition among local governments, the current land expropriation system remains inadequate in terms of compensation standards and procedural norms. This has led to inefficiencies in land resource allocation and has become a significant constraint on regional industrial structural upgrading. Existing literature primarily focuses on the land transfer stage, examining how market-oriented land reforms affect manufacturing efficiency and industrial choices. In contrast, land expropriation, as the precondition for land transfer, receives limited attention.

Therefore, this paper, based on a systematic analysis of the practical dilemmas in land expropriation and the urgent needs of regional industrial structure governance, takes the rural land expropriation reform pilot initiated in 2015 as an entry point. By matching a county-level macro database with a micro-level land transaction database, this paper investigates the practical effects of the reform on improving land factor allocation and alleviating industrial structure distortions, thereby promoting regional industrial upgrading. This contributes to the literature on the policy effects of the land expropriation reform and provides theoretical insights for improving land supply mechanisms.

From a theoretical perspective, this paper identifies the dual dilemma of land factor allocation in China and examines the internal logic underlying how the land expropriation reform mitigates regional industrial structure distortions. Focusing on two mechanisms—reducing land price distortions and optimizing land use structure—this paper reveals how the reform contributes to alleviating the distortions. On this basis, a difference-in-differences (DID) model is constructed to test the theoretical framework empirically. The results indicate that the reform is conducive to reducing regional industrial structure distortions, and this conclusion remains robust across various specifications. Furthermore, this paper employs a causal forest model to assess the heterogeneity of individual treatment effects. The findings indicate that the impact of the reform varies across different contexts. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effectiveness of the reform is influenced by factors such as regional industrial development orientation, fiscal structure, natural endowments, and the degree of marketization.

Based on the theoretical and empirical findings, this paper summarizes the main conclusions and offers policy recommendations. These include improving compensation standards and procedures, designing context-specific reform strategies, and promoting the transition from land-based finance. The findings provide theoretical references and policy insights for advancing the market-oriented allocation of land factors, refining the industrial land system, and enhancing the role of effective government regulation.

Keywords: market-oriented reform of land factors; land expropriation; land use structure; land allocation efficiency; industrial structure distortion

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