机器人应用与全要素生产率

——来自全球生产率分化的经验证据

王永中¹　刘东升²

（1.中国社会科学院；2.中国社会科学院大学）

内容提要：机器人技术作为赋能高质量发展的新动力，不仅直接影响就业需求，还通过就业替代机制和产业结构机制对各国生产率产生分化影响，导致技术红利难以均等惠及所有国家，不利于缩小各国生产率差距。本文通过理论模型分析，推断机器人对生产率具有积极影响，且“机器换人”是提高全要素生产率的重要渠道。基于多个经济体数据的实证研究结果显示，机器人应用提高了各经济体全要素生产率，但由于高生产率经济体的产业结构与机器人技术的匹配度更高、形成的就业替代效应更强，使其生产率的提升幅度更大，进而总体上加剧了全球生产率分化。异质性分析结果表明，少数产业结构适宜、政策环境良好的低生产率经济体，也能通过大量引入机器人，在一定程度上缩小与高生产率经济体间的生产率差距，凸显了明确政策导向和优化产业结构以确保机器人等新技术能够带来可持续技术收益的重要性。

关键词：机器人应用；全要素生产率；生产率分化；产业结构；就业替代效应

作者简介：王永中，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、博士生导师，北京，100732；刘东升，中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院博士研究生，通信作者，北京，102488。

基金项目：中国社会科学院研究所实验室综合资助项目“世界经济预测与政策模拟实验室”（2024SYZH003）

引用格式：王永中,刘东升.机器人应用与全要素生产率——来自全球生产率分化的经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(2):3-23.

Robot Application and Total Factor Productivity

—Empirical Evidence from Global Productivity Divergence

WANG Yongzhong¹, LIU Dongsheng²

(1. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732;

2. University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488)

Abstract: With the in-depth advancement of a new wave of scientific and technological revolution, the modern production mode with industrial robots as its core carrier is becoming a key force in reshaping the global competitive pattern. However, the distribution of new technologies across economies is unbalanced. If developed economies with high productivity reap greater benefits from technological changes, they will inevitably widen their gap with low-productivity economies and weaken the latter’s ability to participate in the international division of labor. This not only harms the benefits of low-productivity economies but also has an important impact on the trend of the scientific and technological competition game pattern of great powers. Therefore, understanding the characteristics and development trends of intelligent technologies such as robots and analyzing their potential effects on total factor productivity (TFP) and productivity divergence among economies are of important theoretical and practical significance.

Using the International Federation of Robotics, PWT 10. 01 and WIOD 2016 databases to match data for 60 economies from 1994 to 2019 and for 14 manufacturing subsectors for 41 economies from 2000 to 2014, this paper explores the impact and mechanism of robot application on TFP and productivity divergence from theoretical and empirical levels. The theoretical model shows that robot applications have a positive impact on productivity, and machine substitution is an important channel for improving TFP. The empirical analysis finds that robot applications can increase the productivity of all economies but exacerbate productivity divergence among economies. Mechanism analysis reveals that the industrial structure and robotic technology of high-productivity economies exhibit a higher degree of compatibility, the employment substitution effects formed are stronger, and thus robot applications have a greater impact on enhancing productivity in these economies. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the high level of robot applications in high-productivity economies exacerbates global productivity divergence. However, a few low-productivity economies with suitable industrial structures and favorable policy environments can partially narrow the productivity gap between them and high-productivity economies by increasing their robot applications.

This paper has some policy suggestions. First,it should strengthen international cooperation with developed economies in intelligent technologies, thereby reducing the technological gap and promoting continued productivity growth in China. Second, it should introduce targeted policies to guide the rational application of intelligent technologies and balance productivity growth with employment stability to avoid triggering the risk of unemployment. Third, considering the impact of new technologies varies across industries, the Chinese government should actively adjust the domestic industrial structure to enhance the adaptability of industries to intelligent technologies such as robots and promote the collaborative development of domestic industrial upgrading and intelligent technology applications.

Keywords: robot application; total factor productivity; productivity divergence; industrial structure; employment substitution effect

下载全文