国家双创示范基地建设何以赋能新质生产力提升？

李晓龙　曾欣然

（贵州财经大学）

摘要：国家双创示范基地建设作为贯彻创新创业政策、落实新发展理念的重要制度探索，对加快形成新质生产力具有重要意义。本文选取277个地级及以上城市2011—2023年的样本数据，采用双重机器学习方法实证检验国家双创示范基地建设对新质生产力的影响效应。研究发现，国家双创示范基地建设能促进新质生产力提升，且该结论经过内生性分析和稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制分析表明，国家双创示范基地建设主要通过提高创业孵化能力、完善科技金融激励和强化财政科技引导三条路径提升新质生产力。异质性分析发现，在经济较发达城市、规模较大城市、非资源型城市和非老工业基地城市，国家双创示范基地建设对新质生产力的提升作用更为明显。本文丰富了新质生产力影响因素和国家双创示范基地建设外部效应的相关研究，研究结论可为进一步推进国家双创示范基地建设、提升新质生产力提供参考。

关键词：国家双创示范基地建设；新质生产力；创业孵化能力；科技金融激励；财政科技引导

作者简介：李晓龙，贵州财经大学应用经济学院副教授，贵阳，550025；曾欣然，贵州财经大学应用经济学院硕士研究生。

基金项目：贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题“贵州农业新质生产力培育的金融服务体系优化研究”（24GZYB84）

引用格式：李晓龙,曾欣然.国家双创示范基地建设何以赋能新质生产力提升?[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(4):34-48.

How does the Construction of Demonstration Bases for Entrepreneurship and Innovation Empower the Improvement of New Quality Productive Forces?

LI Xiaolong, ZENG Xinran

(Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025)

Abstract: At present, China still faces challenges in fostering and developing new quality productive forces, including inadequate capacity for integrating international resources, insufficient investment in basic science and technology, and blocked pathways for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into practical applications. As an important institutional exploration to implement the national entrepreneurship and innovation policies and stimulate regional innovation vitality, demonstration bases for entrepreneurship and innovation boast unique advantages in optimizing the allocation of innovation resources, building platforms for achievement transformation, and nurturing innovation entities. Therefore, systematically identifying the impact of the construction of these bases on new quality productive forces holds theoretical value and practical significance.

This paper uses panel data from 277 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2023. By employing the double machine learning (DML) method to managing high-dimensional confounding variables, this paper empirically identifies and estimates the policy treatment effects of the demonstration bases for entrepreneurship and innovation with greater precision and robustness. The findings show that the construction of these bases can improve new quality productive forces, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that this enabling effect is realized mainly through three channels: improving entrepreneurship incubation capability, enhancing science and technology finance incentives, and strengthening fiscal guidance for science and technology. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy effect is more pronounced in economically developed cities, large cities, non-resource-based cities, and non-old industrial base cities, suggesting varying policy adaptability across urban contexts.

According to the above findings, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations: first, deepening the construction of these bases, further improving supporting policies and dynamic evaluation mechanisms, and optimizing the innovation ecosystem; second, unclogging transmission channels and stimulating innovation and entrepreneurship vitality through professional incubation services, diversified sci-tech finance products, and targeted fiscal support; third, implementing differentiated strategies based on urban characteristics to promote the coordinated regional development of new quality productive forces.

This paper enriches the research on the external effects of the construction of demonstration bases for entrepreneurship and innovation and clarifies the specific mechanisms through which such construction affects new quality productive forces. The findings provide an important reference for deepening the construction of these bases, fostering new quality productive forces, and formulating relevant regional innovation policies.

Keywords: construction of demonstration bases for entrepreneurship and innovation; new quality productive forces; entrepreneurial incubation capability; science and technology finance incentive; fiscal guidance for science and technology

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