专项债务扩张的稳就业效应

——兼论限额分配与使用的影响

韩宁¹　李征召²　赵德昭³

（1.中央财经大学；2.中南财经政法大学；3.河南财经政法大学）

摘要：推进积极的财政政策是稳就业的重要举措，专项债是近年来地方政府落实积极财政政策的重要抓手。本文基于2015—2022年城市面板数据和沪深A股上市公司数据，考察了专项债务扩张的稳就业效应。研究发现，专项债务扩张提高了企业劳动雇佣水平，助力稳就业。机制分析结果显示，专项债务扩张的稳就业效应主要通过改善城市基础设施、缓解企业资金约束以及稳定企业预期三条路径实现。异质性分析发现，专项债务扩张对企业劳动雇佣水平的提升作用在地方财政压力较小、劳动力市场供给充裕的地区以及非国有企业和劳动密集型企业更为明显。进一步分析发现，企业劳动雇佣水平还受到专项债务限额分配和使用情况的正向影响。本文为通过进一步推进专项债提质增效以实现稳就业目标提供了经验证据和政策参考。

关键词：专项债务扩张；限额分配；限额使用；企业劳动雇佣；稳就业

作者简介：韩宁，中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心博士研究生，北京，102206；李征召，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院博士研究生，武汉，430073，通信作者；赵德昭，河南财经政法大学财政税务学院教授、博士生导师，郑州，450046。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“地方财政收入目标约束影响共同富裕的理论机制、效应及对策研究”(22BJL023)；河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队支持计划“数智化财税治理与共同富裕”（2025-CXTD-09）

引用格式：韩宁,李征召,赵德昭.专项债务扩张的稳就业效应——兼论限额分配与使用的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(1):3-18.

Employment-Stabilizing Effect of Special Debt Expansion

—Impact of the Allocation and Utilization of Ceilings

HAN Ning¹, LI Zhengzhao², ZHAO Dezhao³

(1. Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206;

2. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073;

3. Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046)

Abstract: Employment is the most basic component of people’s well-being, which is related to the sustained and healthy development of the national economy. Advancing proactive fiscal policies is a key measure for stabilizing employment. Since the revised Budget Law of the People’s Republic of China officially took effect on January 1, 2015, the scale of special debts has continued to expand, becoming the financial resource with the largest increment in recent years, which strongly guarantees the implementation of proactive fiscal policies and the intensity of fiscal expenditure of local governments. A large number of construction projects brought about by special debt expansion can not only directly create many jobs but also leverage additional social investment, laying a solid foundation for cultivating new growth engines of employment. At the same time, the ceiling management of local government debt balance is a key measure to curb the disorderly expansion of government debt and mitigate related risks. Therefore, the ceiling of special debts allocated to local governments determines the amount they can obtain, which in turn influences the employment-stabilizing effect.

Based on the panel data of cities and the data of A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2022, this paper examines the employment-stabilizing effect of special debts. The results show that special debt expansion can improve corporate employment levels. This conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity issues and conducting a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that special debt expansion can enhance corporate employment levels by improving urban infrastructure, alleviating corporate financial constraints, and stabilizing enterprise expectations. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive impact of special debt expansion on corporate employment levels is more pronounced in regions with low local fiscal pressure and abundant labor market supply, as well as non-state-owned enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises. Further analysis indicates that corporate employment levels are also positively affected by the allocation and utilization of special debt ceilings.

This paper puts forward policy recommendations from three aspects: improving the quality and efficiency of special bond funds, strengthening the coordination between the public finance and the financial sector, and optimizing the allocation and utilization of ceilings. The findings not only enrich research on how policy factors support employment stabilization but also provide empirical evidence and policy references for further enhancing the quality and efficiency of special debts to stabilize employment.

Keywords: special debt expansion; allocation of ceilings; utilization of ceilings; corporate employment; employment stabilization

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