地方政府债务置换与民营企业投资活力

——基于政府债务融资模式转型视角

郭玉清　钱森萍

（南开大学）

摘要：激发民营企业投资活力是当前实现债务风险防控与经济增长双赢的关键路径。本文基于2015—2018年地方政府置换债券数据和2011—2022年民营上市公司数据，使用强度双重差分模型，实证分析地方政府债务置换对民营企业投资活力的影响。研究发现，地方政府债务置换提振了民营企业投资活力，该结论在经过内生性分析和一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制分析表明，地方政府债务置换主要通过优化外源融资结构和改善内源融资效率两条渠道提振民营企业投资活力。异质性分析结果显示，地方政府债务置换对投资活力的提振效应在非产融结合、高市场地位、弱供应链网络关系的民营企业，以及在高财政压力、非优质营商环境地区和非管制行业的企业中更为明显。据此，本文提出了优化信贷配置、清理账款拖欠、出台差异化政策、完善民间投资机制等政策建议。

关键词：债务置换；民营企业；投资活力；融资结构；外源融资；内源融资

作者简介：郭玉清，南开大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，天津，300071；钱森萍，南开大学经济学院博士研究生，通信作者。

基金项目：教育部哲学社会科学实验室专项基金项目“全国地市财政债务数据库建设研究”（H0124701）

引用格式：郭玉清,钱森萍.地方政府债务置换与民营企业投资活力——基于政府债务融资模式转型视角[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(6):143-160.

Local Government Debt Swaps and Investment Vitality of Private Enterprises

—Based on the Transformation in Government Debt Financing Modes

GUO Yuqing, QIAN Senping

(Nankai University, Tianjin 300071)

Abstract: As a core endogenous driver for national economic growth, private enterprise investment plays a driving role in industrial and supply chains, which is a key to sustaining economic flows. To alleviate the crowding-out effect of government debt on the investment and financing of private enterprises, China implemented local government debt swap policies from 2015 to 2018. These policies converted the off-balance-sheet debt originally outside the fiscal supervision system into on-balance-sheet debt incorporated into the full-caliber budget management, thus driving the transformation of local government financing modes toward standardization and transparency. Clarifying the impact of debt swaps on the investment vitality of private enterprises constitutes an important exploration for optimizing the allocation of debt resources and achieving development during debt reduction.

Based on data on local government swap bonds from 2015 to 2018 and from private listed companies from 2011 to 2022, this paper constructs an intensity difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the investment-promoting effect of debt swaps. The paper finds that debt swaps can boost the investment vitality of private enterprises, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of endogeneity treatments and robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that, on the one hand, debt swaps drive private enterprises to shift from informal credit occupation to formal bank credit, thereby optimizing their external financing structure; on the other hand, the debt clearance initiative under debt swaps helps unclog capital bottlenecks in industrial and supply chains and improve the internal financing efficiency of private enterprises. Therefore, debt swaps boost the investment vitality of private enterprises by alleviating both internal and external financing constraints. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this investment-promoting effect is more pronounced for private enterprises with non-industry-finance integration, high market status, and weak supply chain network ties, as well as those located in regions with high fiscal pressure and low levels of marketization, and those operating in non-regulated industries.

This paper confirms the corrective role of local government debt swaps in addressing resource misallocation in the credit market and proposes policy recommendations from four aspects: optimizing credit allocation, clearing up accounts receivable arrears, introducing differentiated policies, and improving the private investment mechanism. These findings not only enrich the relevant research on debt governance that boosts corporate investment but also provide empirical evidence and policy references to further unlock the policy dividends of debt swaps and enhance the dynamism and vitality of private enterprises for high-quality development.

Keywords: debt swap; private enterprise; investment vitality; financing structure; external financing; internal financing

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