数字经济发展的就业效应——基于三次产业的异质性分析

黄祺雨　王乃合　杨光

（南开大学经济学院）

　　内容提要：数字经济与实体经济的深度融合在推动就业结构高级化和合理化时发挥至关重要的作用。在产业数字化过程中，三次产业的特性及其与数字经济发展的适配度决定劳动力在产业间的就业决策和就业流向。本文选取中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，使用广义双重差分法进行实证研究，发现数字经济发展抑制了劳动力从事第一产业，促进了劳动力从事包括第二、三产业在内的非农工作。异质性分析结果表明:（1）数字经济发展对第二产业就业的促进作用主要体现在制造业，而对第三产业就业的促进作用同时体现在传统服务业和高端服务业；（2）第二产业数字化具有技能偏向型技术进步特征，倾向于吸纳高技能劳动力；（3）第三产业的数字化转型发挥降门槛和稳就业的关键性作用，能够同时吸纳高技能和低技能劳动力进入；（4）数字经济发展主要促进中西部地区、农村地区以及年轻劳动力的非农就业。拓展性分析表明，数字经济发展能够赋能农户增收，且有助于提升非农就业质量。因此，持续深挖数字就业红利，对于新时期促进就业增长、保障就业质量、优化就业结构具有重要的现实意义。

　　

　　关键词：数字经济；互联网使用；非农就业；就业结构；就业质量

　　

　　作者简介：黄祺雨，南开大学经济学院博士研究生，天津，300071；王乃合，南开大学经济学院副教授，通信作者；杨光，南开大学经济学院副教授。

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于多维视角的2020年以后我国相对贫困问题研究”（19ZDA052）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国城乡居民多维贫困的测量及精准扶贫绩效的评估”（71874089）

　　引用格式：黄祺雨,王乃合,杨光.数字经济发展的就业效应——基于三次产业的异质性分析[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(11):62-83.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.11.004.

　　

　　

Employment Effect of Digital Economy Development —Heterogeneity Analysis Based on Three Industrie

HUANG Qiyu, WANG Naihe, YANG Guang

(Nankai University, Tianjin 300071)

　　

　　Abstract: The profound integration of the digital economy with the real economy plays a pivotal role in facilitating the rationalization and advancement of the employment structure. Fostering the digital economy will induce inter-industry disparities according to the employment substitution effect and creation effect, thereby stimulating labor mobility within and across sectors.

　　Using the generalized difference-in-differences (GDID) approach with panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper reveals that the advancement of the digital economy deters labor engagement in agriculture while encouraging participation in non-agricultural sectors. Rigorous endogeneity and robustness tests corroborate the robustness of the findings. Heterogeneity analysis yields several noteworthy insights. Firstly, the positive impact of digital economy development on employment within the secondary industry primarily manifests in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, this effect is observed in the tertiary industry across both traditional and high-end service sectors. Secondly, the digitization of the secondary industry is characterized by skill-biased technical advancement and tends to attract high-skilled labor. Thirdly, digitization in the tertiary industry is pivotal in lowering employment barriers and stabilizing employment, appealing to both high-skilled and low-skilled labor. Fourthly, the evolution of the digital economy facilitates non-agricultural employment opportunities in central and western regions, rural areas, and among young laborers. Further analysis underscores that digital economy development has the potential to boost rural households’ incomes and elevate the quality of non-agricultural employment.

　　The marginal contributions of this paper lie in the following aspects.Specifically, it evaluates the impact and heterogeneity of the digital economy on individuals’ employment decisions among three industries, examines the increase in income of rural households and the improvement of non-farm employment, and takes internet usage as a proxy to divide the experimental and control groups. In light of these findings, this paper offers several pertinent insights and recommendations. Firstly, it is imperative to intensify the convergence of the digital economy with the three industries by incorporating digital employment development into the employment priority strategy. Leveraging the employment-generating potential of industrial digitization, this approach promises to optimize the milieu for digital employment development and rationalize the employment structure. Secondly, establishing and refining a labor rights protection system tailored to the contemporary employment landscape is of paramount importance, ultimately enhancing the quality of employment for flexible laborers. Thirdly, by developing critical infrastructure such as 5G base stations, data centers, and cloud computing, steps can be taken to narrow the chasm in digital economy development between regions and between urban and rural areas, thereby bridging the digital divide. Lastly, an expedited effort is warranted to institute a multi-tiered talent development system for the digital economy, with the overarching goal of comprehensively elevating labor’s digital skills.

　　Keywords: digital economy; internet use; non-agricultural employment; employment structure; employment quality