技术创新双重效应与重污染行业绿色转型升级——基于碳排放的视角

吴卫红¹蔡海波¹刘佳^2,3秦臻¹

（1. 北京化工大学经济管理学院；2. 首都经济贸易大学科研处；3. 首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院）

　　内容提要：本文将技术创新效应分解为环境效应和经济效应，运用对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）模型和塔皮奥（Tapio）脱钩模型，探究重污染行业如何实现“环境效益-技术创新-经济效益”协同发展的绿色转型升级。研究结果表明：2012—2019年重污染行业整体上呈现从弱脱钩到强脱钩的趋势，实现了一定程度的绿色转型升级，但部分细分行业绿色转型升级状态有所恶化；技术创新双重效应对重污染行业绿色转型升级的影响最大，双重效应的作用方向相反且作用大小不同导致行业间绿色转型升级效果存在差异；进一步分解重污染行业碳排放脱钩弹性状态的诱因，发现技术创新双重效应对碳排放的直接影响和交互影响作用方向不同。本文研究为重污染行业实现经济效益和环境效益协调发展提供了有益的政策启示，并为制定差异化重污染行业绿色转型升级政策指明了改进方向。

　　

　　关键词：绿色转型升级；技术创新双重效应；碳排放；重污染行业；LMDI模型；Tapio模型

　　

　　作者简介：吴卫红，北京化工大学经济管理学院教授，北京，102202；蔡海波，北京化工大学经济管理学院硕士研究生；刘佳，首都经济贸易大学科研处助理研究员、城市经济与公共管理学院博士研究生，通信作者，北京，100070；秦臻，北京化工大学经济管理学院硕士研究生。

　　基金项目：北京市自然科学基金面上项目 “基于环境-创新-效益共生演化的京津冀重污染行业绿色转型升级路径研究”（9212013）

　　引用格式：吴卫红,蔡海波,刘佳,等.技术创新双重效应与重污染行业绿色转型升级——基于碳排放的视角[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(11):45-61.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.11.003.

　　

　　

Dual Effects of Technological Innovation and Green Transformation and Upgrading of Heavily Polluting Industries

—From the Perspective of Carbon Emissions

WU Weihong¹, CAI Haibo¹, LIU Jia², QIN Zhen¹

(1. Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 102202;

2. Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070)

　　

　　Abstract: Promoting green and low-carbon economic and social development is the key to achieving high-quality development. Given the notable impact of heavily polluting industries on economic and social development, greening and decarbonization are their primary objective and direction for achieving green transformation and upgrading in the new era.

　　This paper takes the green transformation and upgrading of heavily polluting industries and the realization of the strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (“dual carbon” goals) as the realistic demand orientation. It selects the time series data of 20 sub-sectors of heavily polluting industries from 2011 to 2019 to conduct an empirical analysis based on the green technology innovation theory and the energy rebound theory. Then, using the LMDI model and the Tapio decoupling model to decompose the effects of technological innovation into the environmental effect and the economic effect, it explores the synergistic green transformation and upgrading of environmental benefit—technological innovation—economic benefit in these industries.

　　The findings reveal that heavily polluting industries show a decoupling trend from weak to strong, achieving partial green transformation and upgrading. However, some sub-sectors still need to make more improvements. Furthermore, the dual effects of technological innovation have the greatest impact on the green transformation and upgrading of these industries. At the same time, the direction and size vary in the effect of green transformation and upgrading. After decomposing the causal factors of the decoupling elasticity state of carbon emissions in heavily polluting industries, it is found that the dual effects of technological innovation on carbon emissions have a direct and interactive impact in different directions. The conclusions may provide practical implications for heavily polluting industries to achieve coordination of economic and environmental benefits.

　　The contributions are as follows. (1) From the perspective of carbon emissions, this paper applies the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling state of 20 sub-sectors of heavily polluting industries and clarify the state of green transformation and upgrading. (2) The Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI model are employed to investigate the impacts of dual effects of technological innovation on heavily polluting industries with different green transformation and upgrading states, providing a theoretical explanation for the contradiction in the role of technological innovation. (3) Based on the strategic needs of the “dual carbon” goal, it decomposes the triggers of carbon emission change to explore the direct and interactive impact of the dual effects of technological innovation on carbon emission change. It puts forward theoretical support for realizing a win-win situation in the development pattern of technological innovation, economic development, and ecological environment.

　　Keywords: green transformation; dual effects of technological innovation; carbon emission; heavily polluting industry; LMDI model; Tapio decoupling model