“双碳”目标下碳排放权交易试点的减排效应与区域差异

李荣华　杜昊

（河南师范大学商学院）

　　内容提要：本文以碳排放权交易试点政策的实施构造准自然实验，基于2005—2019年中国285个城市数据，运用多期双重差分方法检验交易试点的减排效应、机制及区域差异。研究结果显示：（1）碳排放权交易能够持续、有效地从总量、效率与公平方面降低试点地区碳排放水平，该结论通过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。（2）碳排放权交易能够通过能源强度降低、能源结构转型和绿色技术进步有效实现试点城市的碳减排。（3）碳排放权交易减排效果存在异质性。从区域来看，减排效应大小依次为西部、中部和东部地区；从工业特征和环保政策偏好来看，老工业基地和环境保护重点城市的碳减排效果更好。（4）西部地区的碳减排效应主要源于能源强度改善和能源结构转型，绿色技术进步方面东部地区效果较强而西部地区存在明显挤出效应；老工业基地减排效应主要依赖于能源强度改善，非老工业基地则通过各种机制协同作用实现；环境保护重点城市和非环境保护重点城市均能通过各种机制协同减排，环境保护重点城市通过绿色技术进步实现减排水平的突破。本文为中国因地制宜地发挥碳排放权交易作用，进而实现“双碳”目标和绿色转型发展提供经验证据和政策启示。

　　

　　关键词：碳排放权交易试点；能源强度；能源结构；绿色技术进步；区域差异

　　

　　作者简介：李荣华，河南师范大学商学院副教授，新乡，453007；杜昊，河南师范大学商学院助教。

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于控制权最优配置的PPP供给效率研究”（20BJL134）

　　引用格式：李荣华,杜昊.“双碳”目标下碳排放权交易试点的减排效应与区域差异[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(11):25-44.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.11.002.

　　

　　

Emission Reduction Effect and Regional Differences of Carbon Emission
Trading Pilots Under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

LI Ronghua, DU Hao

(Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007)

　　

　　Abstract: The carbon emission trading policy is one of the core tools for China to achieve the strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (“dual carbon” goals). This paper examines the effectiveness of this policy from multiple dimensions and explores the underlying mechanisms and logic behind different carbon emission reduction effects.

　　Based on the data of 285 cities in China from 2005 to 2019, this paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment with the implementation of the carbon emissions trading pilot policy, using a multi-period difference-in-differences model to test the emission reduction effect, mechanism, and regional differences of the pilots. It analyzes theoretical aspects, proposes research hypotheses, and conducts empirical research. Further, it conducts benchmark regression analysis and robustness tests such as the parallel trend test, the PSM-DID test and the placebo test to ensure the reliability of the conclusions. Then, it verifies the mechanism of carbon emission trading to achieve emission reduction and explores the differential performance of emission reduction effect and paths according to regional characteristics.

　　The findings are as follows. (1) Carbon emission trading can continuously and effectively reduce carbon emissions in pilots in terms of total amount, efficiency, and fairness. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. (2) Carbon emission trading can effectively reduce carbon emissions in pilots through energy intensity reduction, energy structure transformation, and green technology progress. (3) The emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading is heterogeneous. From the perspective of regional economic development, the emission reduction effect is the most significant in the western region, followed by the central and eastern regions. From the perspective of industrial characteristics and environmental policy preferences, the emission reduction effect is better in old industrial bases and key environmental protection cities. (4) The emission reduction effect in the western region mainly stems from energy intensity improvement and energy structure transformation. However, the green technology progress has a greater impact in the eastern region and exerts a crowding out effect in the western region. Moreover, the emission reduction effect in key environmental protection cities and old industrial bases is mainly driven by green technology progress and energy intensity improvement, respectively. Non-old industrial bases, key environmental protection cities, and non-key environmental protection cities can achieve coordinated emission reduction through various mechanisms.

　　Through a systematic and in-depth study of the policy effects and regional differences of carbon emission trading,this paper identifies the advantages and disadvantages of regional carbon emission reduction under different conditions. It sheds some light on achieving the goal of a well-functioning government and efficient market and green and low-carbon transformation. Thus, it is recommended to clarify the relationship between the government and the market, accelerate the transformation of environmental regulation policies, and balance the development differences between regions, to promote sustainable development.

　　Keywords: carbon emission trading pilot; energy intensity; energy structure; green technology progress; regional difference