工业机器人应用与中国城市制造业出口升级

谷均怡¹　赵春明²　李震³

（1. 国际关系学院经济金融学院；2. 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院；3. 北京邮电大学经济管理学院）

　　内容提要：本文基于2006—2016年国际机器人联盟数据和中国海关数据，实证分析工业机器人应用对中国城市制造业出口升级的影响。研究结果表明：城市工业机器人应用显著促进了当地制造业出口技术复杂度的提升，且这一影响主要通过人力资本提升效应、中间品进口效应以及资源再配置效应共同推动；工业机器人应用主要促进了加工贸易出口技术复杂度的提升，对初始技术基础好、市场化程度高的城市出口复杂度的促进作用更强。拓展分析发现，机器人应用对邻近城市制造业出口技术复杂度提升具有抑制作用，机器人引致的低技能劳动力就近迁移是造成这一空间负外部性的主要原因。

　　

　　关键词：工业机器人；出口技术复杂度；空间外溢效应；资源再配置；低技能劳动力就近迁移

　　

　　作者简介：谷均怡，国际关系学院经济金融学院讲师，北京，100091；赵春明，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授、博士生导师，北京，100875；李震，北京邮电大学经济管理学院讲师，通信作者，北京，100876。

　　基金项目：国际关系学院中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“数字技术对中国企业供应链自主可控能力的影响研究”（3262023T40）；国家社会科学基金重点项目“工业智能化应用对中国贸易高质量发展的影响研究”（22AJL012）；北京邮电大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“机器人智能技术对人力资本积累的影响研究”（2022RC60）

　　引用格式：谷均怡,赵春明,李震.工业机器人应用与中国城市制造业出口升级[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(9):22-42.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.09.002.

　　

　　

Industrial Robot Applications and Urban Manufacturing Export Upgrading in China

GU Junyi¹, ZHAO Chunming², LI Zhen³

(1. University of International Relations, Beijing 100091;

2. Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875;

3. Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876)

　　

　　Abstract: Technological upgrading and competitiveness enhancement of final exports are of great significance to the transformation of China’s manufacturing industry and the optimization of the export structure. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper empirically examines the impact of industrial robot applications on export upgrading in the urban manufacturing industry, using data from 270 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2016.

　　The findings show that urban industrial robot applications significantly enhance the export sophistication of the local manufacturing industry. Specifically, when analyzing two cities located in the 25th and 75th percentiles of the density distribution of industrial robot applications, the export sophistication of the latter increased by approximately 13.34% from 2006 to 2016. This variance is equivalent to an average increase of roughly 41.69% in the standard deviation of export sophistication of the manufacturing industry in all cities over 11 years. The mechanism tests indicate that urban industrial robot applications promote urban manufacturing export upgrading through human capital improvement effects, intermediate goods import effects, and resource reallocation effects. The heterogeneity test shows that industrial robot applications mainly enhance the export sophistication of processing trade and exert a more significant influence on the export sophistication of cities with sound initial technological foundations and high levels of marketization. Extensive analysis reveals that urban industrial robot applications have a spatial spillover effect. Specifically, the robot applications contribute to the local manufacturing export upgrading but impede the advancement of manufacturing export sophistication in neighboring cities. The migration of low-skilled labor nearby caused by the robot applications is the main reason for the spatial negative externalities.

　　Compared with the previous research, the main contributions of this paper are as follows. First, it comprehensively investigates the impact of industrial robot applications on urban manufacturing export upgrading in China, revealing the underlying factors and mechanisms. Second, it analyzes the heterogeneity between robot applications and export upgrading, and explores the differential impact of robots on cities with different trade modes and resource endowments. This aims to answer the question of what characteristics cities should possess to better leverage the export upgrading effect brought by robot applications. Third, it evaluates the impact of robot applications on export upgrading from a spatial perspective. The conclusions are not only a supplement to existing research, but also provide valuable references and practical insight for China to promote coordinated development of regional trade in the new era.

　　Keywords:   industrial robot; export sophistication; spatial spillover effect; resource reallocation; migration of low-skilled labor nearby