母国工业智能化与制造业对外绿地投资

郑毓铭¹　薛军²

（1. 青岛大学马克思主义学院；2. 南开大学经济学院）

　　内容提要：本文基于2003—2019年全球71个国家的数据，系统考察母国工业智能化与制造业对外绿地投资的关系。研究结果表明，一国工业智能化水平的提高显著促进了制造业对外绿地投资。这一结论在一系列稳健性检验和因果识别检验后仍然显著。机制检验结果表明，生产率、市场需求是工业智能化影响制造业绿地投资的重要渠道。进一步研究发现，工业智能化的制造业对外绿地投资促进效应还会传导至产业链的上下游行业。异质性分析结果表明，当母国的经济发展水平较高、来源行业生产成本较高、投资目的国市场规模较大以及母国与投资目的国地理距离较小时，母国工业智能化对制造业对外绿地投资的促进效应更强。

　　

　　关键词：工业智能化；工业机器人；对外绿地投资；海外生产；制造业

　　

　　作者简介：郑毓铭，青岛大学马克思主义学院教师，青岛，266071；薛军，南开大学经济学院教授、博士生导师。

　　

　　引用格式：郑毓铭,薛军.母国工业智能化与制造业对外绿地投资[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(7):3-21.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.07.001.

　　

　　

Industrial Intelligence of Home Country and Outward Greenfield Investment in Manufacturing

ZHENG Yuming¹, XUE Jun²

(1.Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071;

2. Nankai University, Tianjin 300071)

　　

　　Abstract: Outward greenfield investment in manufacturing is a forward-looking indicator of production location expectations. The current global production distribution pattern is changing due to the impact of the development and application of industrial intelligence. However, there is no consensus on whether industrial intelligence will lead to a return of manufacturing to developed countries, thereby reducing outward greenfield investment in manufacturing. Therefore, based on the outward greenfield investment data of 71 countries in manufacturing from 2003 to 2019, this paper conducts a theoretical and empirical analysis of how industrial intelligence affects outward greenfield investment. In the empirical analysis, the level of outward greenfield investment is measured by the number of outward greenfield investment projects, and the industrial robot stock provided by the IRF is used to measure the level of industrial intelligence.

　　The findings reveal that improving the level of industrial intelligence in the home country significantly promotes outward greenfield investment in manufacturing. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. Through the intermediary effect model, this paper proves that the industrial intelligence level of the home country improves the outward greenfield investment level by enhancing the home country’s manufacturing productivity and increasing the market demand. Further research shows that the promotion effect of industrial intelligence on outward greenfield investment will also be transmitted to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain through the intermediate product market. Specifically, improving the level of industrial intelligence upstream will positively affect outward greenfield investment downstream, and vice versa. The heterogeneity analysis shows that, first, the promotion effect of industrial intelligence on outward greenfield investment in manufacturing is stronger in countries with higher economic development levels or production costs. Second, when the geographical distance between the home country and the host country increases, this promotion effect becomes weaker. Third, when the host country’s market size or market demand becomes more extensive, the improvement of industrial intelligence will lead to a higher level of outward greenfield investment in manufacturing. Fourth, as the level of industrial intelligence improves, the positive effect on the level of upstream and downstream outward greenfield investment will also increase.

　　This paper makes several innovations. First, it enriches the research on foreign direct investment in manufacturing by incorporating industrial intelligence into the theoretical framework of outward greenfield investment. Second, it covers both developing and developed countries, unlike existing studies that mainly focus on the impact of industrial intelligence on the overseas manufacturing activities of developed countries. Third, it employs multidimensional panel data, which helps to mitigate the endogeneity arising from macro-level data.

　　Keywords: industrial intelligence; industrial robot; outward greenfield investment; overseas production; manufacturing