人工智能、要素禀赋与制造业高质量发展——来自中国208个城市的经验证据

谢伟丽^1,2　石军伟³　张起帆⁴

（1. 郑州航空工业管理学院经济学院；2. 河南大学应用经济学博士后流动站；3. 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院；4. 中原银行股份有限公司投资银行部）

　　内容提要：人工智能是制造业实现高质量发展的新引擎。本文在构建人工智能、要素禀赋与制造业高质量发展的理论框架基础上，利用 2010—2019年中国城市层面数据，采用面板数据模型探讨人工智能影响制造业高质量发展的效应及其作用机制。研究结果显示：人工智能显著促进制造业高质量发展，该结论在一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。此外，在东中西部地区、资源型及非资源型城市，人工智能对制造业高质量发展的影响效应存在异质性。作用机制分析结果显示，要素禀赋结构优化和人力资本提升在人工智能驱动制造业高质量发展的过程中具有显著的中介效应；金融支持能够显著强化人工智能对制造业高质量发展的驱动效应。本文的研究结论可以为助推人工智能驱动制造业高质量发展提供重要政策参考。

　　

　　关键词：人工智能；制造业高质量发展；要素禀赋；要素结构优化；人力资本提升；金融支持

　　

　　作者简介：谢伟丽，郑州航空工业管理学院经济学院讲师/河南大学应用经济学博士后流动站博士后；石军伟，中南财经政法大学工商管理学院教授、博士生导师；张起帆，中原银行股份有限公司投资银行部职员。

　　

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字经济驱动制造业高质量发展的内在机理及实现路径研究”（20CJY026）；河南省高等学校重点项目“新时期河南省制造业发展质量测度与提升路径研究”（20A790028）

　　

　　引用格式：谢伟丽,石军伟,张起帆.人工智能、要素禀赋与制造业高质量发展——来自中国208个城市的经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(4):21-38.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.04.002.

　　

Artificial Intelligence, Factor Endowments and High-quality Development of Manufacturing

—Empirical Evidence from China’s 208 Cities

XIE Weili^1,2, SHI Junwei³, ZHANG Qifan⁴

(1. Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046;

2. Henan University, Kaifeng 475005;

3. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073;

4. Zhongyuan Bank Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450046)

　　

　　Abstract: Artificial intelligence is a new engine for manufacturing to achieve high-quality development. From the perspective of factor endowment, this paper constructs a theoretical framework of artificial intelligence, factor endowment and the high-quality development of manufacturing. It empirically analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence on the high-quality development of manufacturing and its mechanism from the dimensions of factor endowment structure and factor input, using the panel data of 208 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2019.

　　The results indicate that artificial intelligence contributes significantly to the high-quality development of manufacturing. This remains valid after robustness tests, including introducing instrumental variables, using the SYS-GMM model, replacing explanatory variables, and conducting stepwise regression. The mechanism analysis shows that factor endowment structure optimization and human capital improvement significantly mediate artificial intelligence, which boost the high-quality development of manufacturing. Furthermore, financial support can also strengthen the driving effect of artificial intelligence on the high-quality development of manufacturing. Specifically, the higher the financial support, the more significant the driving impact of artificial intelligence in the high-quality development of manufacturing. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the driving impact is more potent in eastern regions, coastal cities, and non-resource-based cities than in central and western regions, inland cities, and resource-based cities. Human capital is essential in non-resource cities, and the mediating effect of factor endowment structure and the moderating effect of financial support are stronger than in resource-based cities.

　　Through theoretic alanalysis and empirical tests, this paper proves that artificial intelligence is an important driving force in the high-quality development of manufacturing. Both factor structure optimization and human capital improvement are effective transmission mechanisms. Moreover, financial support can positively moderate the driving effect of artificial intelligence on the high-quality development of manufacturing. In addition, the impact of artificial intelligence on the high-quality development of manufacturing is heterogeneous in eastern and central regions, inland and coastal cities, and resource and non-resource-based cities. These conclusions may provide crucial policy references for boosting the high-quality development of artificial intelligence-driven manufacturing.

　　Keywords: artificial intelligence; high-quality development of manufacturing; factor endowment; factor structure optimization; human capital improvement; financial support