减税降费、政府支出与企业利润

任桐瑜　谢建国　洪小羽

（南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心/商学院）

　　内容提要：通过构建一个嵌入增值税和政府支出的空间均衡模型，本文在考虑减税降费对地方政府支出作用的同时，探讨减税降费对企业利润的影响。研究结果表明，2015—2020年实施的减税降费政策整体上促进了企业利润水平的上升。但减税降费政策同时会对地方政府的财政收入和支出产生不利影响，并通过影响公共产品和服务的供给从而对企业生产率和利润水平产生负面冲击。地方政府支出占国内生产总值比重和增值税税收占比在一定程度上共同决定了地方政府实施减税降费的政策空间和政策效果。此外，劳动力供给条件和工资水平的变动也在一定程度上影响了减税降费政策的效果。减税降费政策要根据地方财政的承受能力量力而行，而且政府在制定减税降费政策时需要将区域内劳动力市场条件考虑在内，以便政策达到预期效果。

　　

　　关键词：减税降费；政府支出；税负归宿；企业利润；劳动力市场

　　

　　作者简介：任桐瑜，南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心/商学院博士研究生，南京，210093；谢建国，南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心/商学院教授、博士生导师，通信作者；洪小羽，南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心/商学院博士研究生。

　　

　　基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于要素生产与要素创造的大国贸易利益分配：逻辑、动力与测度研究”（72073062）；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“比较优势迁移、生产重构与大国贸易利益分配：机制、影响与评估”（20YJA790074）；江苏省社会科学基金一般项目“江苏高质量发展与现代开放经济体系构建研究”（19EYB003）

　　

　　引用格式：任桐瑜,谢建国,洪小羽.减税降费、政府支出与企业利润[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(3):89-108.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.03.006.

　　

　　

Tax and Fee Cuts, Government Expenditure and Enterprise Profits

REN Tongyu, XIE Jianguo, HONG Xiaoyu

(Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093)

　　

　　Abstract: Tax and fee cuts have a significant impact on economic and social development, conducive to improving enterprise productivity and promoting innovation, and ultimately achieving high-quality macroeconomic development. However, the current literature on the relationship between the tax and fee cuts policy and enterprise performance fails to consider local government expenditure. Although it may reduce the tax burden on enterprises, the policy has a negative impact not only on local government expenditure, resulting in a reduction in the supply of public goods and services, but also on enterprise productivity and profits. Therefore, this paper argues that the effect of tax and fee cuts depends on the combined impact of both factors, rather than just the positive impact of reducing the tax burden.

　　Using the tax incidence theory, this paper modifies the spatial equilibrium model to embed value-added tax and local government expenditure. This revised model can explore the impact of tax and fee cuts on enterprise profits while considering local government expenditure. Compared with the existing literature, this paper makes some progress in the following aspects. On the one hand, it introduces the transfer of value-added tax into the spatial equilibrium model and assumes that labor and enterprises share this tax, which can objectively and reasonably evaluate the effect of China’s tax and fee cuts policies. On the other hand, it embeds local government expenditure in the model to examine the impact of value-added tax on enterprise profits through the channel of local government expenditure.

　　The findings are shown as follows. First, the tax and fee cuts policy implemented by the Chinese government from 2015 to 2020 promotes enterprises’ profitability. Second, the policy has an impact on the fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments, ultimately affecting the productivity and profit levels of enterprises by reducing the supply of public goods and services. Moreover, the impact of tax and fee cuts policies on enterprise profits depends on the proportion of local governments’ fiscal expenditure in GDP and that of value-added tax in local government tax revenues. Third, changes in labor supply conditions and wage levels also exert some influence on the effect of the tax and fee cuts policy.

　　This paper puts forward the following policy implications. First, implementing tax and fee cuts policies should be consistent with the fiscal capacity of local governments. Specifically, local governments ought to strengthen their fiscal budget management, and carefully formulate policies that are more conducive to improving the impact of tax and fee cuts. Second, the government should consider local labor market conditions while implementing the policy, so as to achieve the expected effect.

　　Keywords: tax and fee cuts; government expenditure; tax incidence; enterprise profit; labor market