人工智能技术创新与区域经济协调发展——基于专利数据的技术发展状况及区域影响分析

陈楠¹　蔡跃洲²

（1. 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所；2. 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所数字经济研究室）

　　内容提要：本文使用人工智能专利统计量构建核心解释变量，以2010—2019年284个地级及以上城市面板数据为分析样本，就人工智能技术对中国区域经济增长、经济差距、经济关联的影响进行实证检验。结果表明：（1）人工智能技术对区域经济增长具有持续、稳健的促进作用，技术进步对东部、中部地区的影响更为显著；（2）人工智能技术基础层、技术层、应用层各分支在东部、中部、西部地区的分布呈现同构化特征，技术发展方向与区域比较优势之间存在错配，阻碍了西部地区分享技术红利；（3）人工智能缩小了中部城市与全国平均水平的经济差距，但扩大了西部城市与全国平均水平的差距；（4）人工智能对经济增长的促进作用难以通过经济水平相近、产业结构相似、地理位置邻近等条件传导至邻近区域，技术进步尚未对区域经济关联产生显著影响。为引导中国人工智能技术长期健康发展、实现高质量区域协调发展，未来应加强人工智能关键核心技术攻关、优化人工智能产业区域布局、重点提升西部地区技术水平和区域承接能力。

　　

　　关键词：人工智能；技术创新；区域协调发展；人工智能专利；高质量发展

　　

　　作者简介：陈楠，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所助理研究员，北京，100732；蔡跃洲，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所数字经济研究室研究员、博士生导师，通信作者。

　　

　　基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“制造业数字化转型异质性特征与分类促进策略研究”（22CJY047）

　　

　　引用格式：陈楠,蔡跃洲.人工智能技术创新与区域经济协调发展——基于专利数据的技术发展状况及区域影响分析[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(3):16-40.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.03.002.

　　

　　

AI Innovation and Coordinated Development of Regional Economy
—Analysis of Technological Development and Regional Impact Using Patent Data

CHEN Nan, CAI Yuezho

　　(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732)

　　

　　Abstract: The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the coordinated development of China’s regional economy can be reflected in various aspects, which include enhancing regional economic growth, narrowing the regional economic gap, and strengthening regional economic connectivity. These three aspects are stepwise progressive and mutually supportive. Among them, regional economic growth acts as the bedrock for narrowing the regional gap, while improving economic connectivity provides leverage to enhance economic growth and achieve high-quality coordinated regional development.

　　This pape examines the impact of AI on China’s regional economic growth, gap, and connectivity, using AI patents as the core explanatory variable. Then, based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level from 2010 to 2019, it adopts the fixed effects model, instrumental variable regression, dynamic panel regression, and spatial econometrics to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis. After examining the current status and regional characteristics of AI in China, this paper aims to provide theoretical and empirical evidence to guide the long-term and healthy development of AI technology and to achieve high-quality coordinated regional development. Over half of China’s AI patents are concentrated in the upstream foundation layer of the industry chain, while core algorithm patents such as machine learning and deep learning account for less than 1%. The proportion of patents in the middle-stream technology layer is the lowest, which may adversely affect the commercialization of the foundation layer or reduce the patent quality and economic potential of the application layer. The downstream application layer is primarily concentrated in manufacturing with relatively low penetration into the primary and tertiary industries.

　　Results show: (1) AI is sustained and robust in promoting regional economic growth in China, particularly in the eastern and central regions. (2) The distribution of AI technology branches in the eastern, central, and western regions shows structural assimilation. A mismatch between technological advancement and regional comparative advantages hinders the sharing of technological dividends in the western region. (3) AI narrows the economic gap between the central regions and the national average, but widens the gap between the western regions and the national average. There is no significant impact on the regional economic gap nationwide. (4) The promotion effect of AI on economic growth is difficult to transmit to neighboring cities through similar economic levels, industrial structures, or geographical proximity. There is no significant impact of technological progress on improving regional economic connectivity.

　　The impact of AI on China’s regional economy is mainly reflected in the improvement of the scale of regional economic growth. However, the impact on narrowing regional economic gaps and deepening regional economic connectivity needs further improvement. Suggestions are proposed to guide the long-term and healthy development of AI technology in China and achieve high-quality coordinated regional development. First, it should strengthen R&D investment in AI-related fields to ensure the independent control of key core technologies. Second, it should improve and optimize the AI industry’s top-level design and regional layout to build a development pattern with complementary advantages. Third, it is necessary to pay close attention to AI innovation and its application in the western region and improve its technology accommodating capacity.

　　Keywords: artificial intelligence; technological innovation; coordinated regional development; AI patent; high-quality development