激励与均衡：税收分享对城乡收入差距的非线性效应

康明¹　踪家峰²

（1.天津商业大学；2.南京大学）

摘要：在推进共同富裕与城乡融合发展战略背景下，优化政府间税收分享已成为调节收入分配格局的关键政策切入点。本文通过构建理论模型系统阐释税收分享与城乡收入差距之间的内在关联，并选取2010—2022年地级及以上城市面板数据进行实证检验。结果显示，城乡收入差距与税收分享之间为U型非线性关系，即税收分享比例的增加会先缩小后扩大城乡收入差距，存在最优税收分享水平。内生性分析和稳健性检验结果表明，本文核心结论具有较好的可靠性。异质性分析结果显示，该影响效应存在一定的区域差异。在人力资本水平、市场化程度较高地区，税收分享的效应更为明显；而在人力资本水平、市场化程度较低地区，税收分享的效应相对有限。本文的政策启示在于，在推动共同富裕进程中，适度调整地方税收分享政策能够有效推动城乡收入差距收敛，同时政策调整应结合地区发展实际，因地制宜优化分享安排。

关键词：共同富裕；税收分享；城乡收入差距；人力资本；市场化

作者简介：康明，天津商业大学经济学院讲师，天津，300134；踪家峰，南京大学长江产业发展研究院教授、博士生导师，南京，210093。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人工智能促进区域经济协调发展的机制研究”（22BJL062）

引用格式：康明,踪家峰.激励与均衡:税收分享对城乡收入差距的非线性效应[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(4):3-16.

Incentive and Equilibrium: Nonlinear Effects of Tax Sharing on Urban-Rural Income Gap

KANG Ming¹, ZONG Jiafeng²

(1. Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134;

2. Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093)

Abstract: Against the background of promoting common prosperity and integrated development of urban and rural areas, optimizing the intergovernmental tax sharing mechanism has become a key policy lever for regulating the income distribution pattern. This paper develops a theoretical model to systematically elaborate on the intrinsic connection between tax sharing and the urban-rural income gap, and conducts an empirical study based on the panel data from cities at and above the prefecture level from 2010 to 2022.

The findings show that there is a U-shaped nonlinear relationship between tax sharing and the urban-rural income gap, with an optimal threshold. On the left side of this threshold, the marginal returns brought by tax sharing are greater than the marginal costs, which helps to narrow the urban-rural income gap. On the right side, however, the agglomeration diseconomies caused by excessive population concentration dominate, leading to the marginal costs exceeding the marginal returns, which is not conducive to narrowing the gap. At the threshold point, the system reaches a state of equilibrium.

From a practical perspective, about 25.75% of sample cities have a tax-sharing ratio below this threshold, indicating that these cities are still at a stage where they can promote coordinated urban-rural development by appropriately increasing their tax-sharing ratios. On the contrary, 74.25% of cities have exceeded this threshold, and the marginal returns of their tax sharing have tended to weaken, entering a stage in which the agglomeration diseconomy effect begins to appear and may dominate the urban-rural income gap.

To enhance the robustness of the conclusions, this paper adopts the instrumental variable method to alleviate potential endogeneity bias, and conducts various robustness tests, including replacing the measurement method of the explained variable, controlling for the impact of transfer payment intensity, excluding samples from autonomous regions, clustering standard errors at the provincial level, and re-estimating by selecting urban samples through random sampling. The results confirm the robustness of the core conclusions.

Further heterogeneity analysis indicates this effect exhibits regional variation. In regions with higher levels of human capital and marketization, the income-regulating effect of tax sharing is more pronounced. This finding highlights the dependence of the income-regulating effect of tax sharing on regional endowment, revealing the boundary conditions for policy effectiveness.

This paper provides empirical evidence for promoting the balanced development of urban and rural areas as follows. In the process of advancing common prosperity, appropriately adjusting local tax sharing policies can effectively promote the convergence of the urban-rural income gap. At the same time, policy adjustments should align with regional development, optimizing tax sharing mechanisms according to local conditions to facilitate the sustained narrowing of the urban-rural income gap.

Keywords: common prosperity; tax sharing; urban-rural income gap; human capital; marketization level

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