税制结构变动对居民消费的影响研究

曲一申¹　臧旭恒^2,3　姚健¹

（1. 山东大学经济学院；2. 山东师范大学经济学院；3. 山东大学消费与发展研究所）

内容提要：税收及税制结构在扩大内需尤其是提高居民消费需求等方面起着非常重要的作用。在税收总量保持不变的前提下，政府可以通过调节税制结构来刺激居民消费。从异质性消费者的角度来看，由于异质性消费者无法实现跨期最优，导致其效用函数不同。这意味着同样一单位减税额会造成不同消费者最优消费水平的不同变动。本文以2011年个人所得税改革作为政策节点，利用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）2010年和2012年的收入和消费数据计算居民承担的直接税和间接税数值，以个人所得税改革对税制结构的调整为切入点，采用双重差分法分析政策实施前后居民消费的变化。研究结果显示，2011年的个人所得税改革显著刺激居民消费，并且刺激效果对不同类型的家庭存在明显的异质性。研究结论的政策含义在于，在调节税制结构的过程中，需在居民整体税负水平保持稳定或者逐步下降的前提下充分发挥直接税对收入分配的调节作用，在税制结构良性发展的同时兼顾居民消费的增长。

关键词：个人所得税改革；税制结构；居民消费；异质性消费者；收入分配

作者简介：曲一申，山东大学经济学院博士研究生，济南，250100；臧旭恒，山东师范大学经济学院教授，济南，250358/山东大学消费与发展研究所教授、博士生导师；姚健，山东大学经济学院博士研究生。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国家庭经济风险测度、成因及外溢性研究”（21&ZD088）；国家社会科学基金青年项目“预期不确定性影响家庭异质性消费行为的机理与政策优化研究”（20CJL034）

引用格式：曲一申,臧旭恒,姚健.税制结构变动对居民消费的影响研究[J].经济与管理研究,2023,44(1):25-37.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2023.01.002.

　　

　　

Research on the Impact of Taxation Structure Change on Household Consumption

QU Yishen¹, ZANG Xuheng², YAO Jian¹

(1. Shandong University, Jinan 250100;

2. Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358)

　　

　　Abstract: Both tax revenue and taxation structure play an important role in increasing domestic demand, particularly household consumption demand. From the perspective of heterogeneous consumers, their utility functions differ due to the inability to achieve intertemporal optimality. Thus, it is worthwhile to consider how to adjust the taxation structure to stimulate household consumption and ultimately achieve the purpose of expanding domestic demand and promoting domestic circulation, on the premise of maintaining the level of government taxation.This paper takes the individual income tax reform in 2011 as the policy node, and uses the household income and consumption data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2010 and 2012 to calculate the corresponding direct and indirect tax values. Then, it takes the adjustments of the taxation structure by the individual income tax reform as the entry point, and uses the difference-in-differences (DID) method to analyze the changes in household consumption before and after implementing the policy.The results show that the individual income tax reform reduces the share of direct taxes in the total tax burden borne by households by decreasing the individual income tax burden, increasing household disposable income, and promoting household consumption. This finding is still valid after a series of robustness tests. Furthermore, individual income tax reform significantly increases household consumption expenditures on food and dining out, clothing, and household goods and services, but insignificantly affects other consumption types. Moreover, compared to the elder, low-educated, and rural samples, the taxation reform significantly promotes consumption expenditures of the younger, highly educated, and urban households.Therefore, in regulating the taxation structure, it should give full play to the role of direct taxation in regulating income distribution. Meanwhile, it should also put more emphasis on the heterogeneous impact of changes in the taxation structure on different households to align the goal of achieving household consumption growth with taxation structure development.This paper may contribute to the existing literature in the following aspects. Firstly, it uses the micro household survey data to measure the actual indirect taxes borne by households and combines it with individual income tax to construct a taxation structure ratio. Secondly, it adopts the DID method to analyze the impact of taxation structure changes on household consumption. Thirdly, it investigates the impact of taxation structure changes by distinguishing heterogeneous consumers.

　　Keywords: individual income tax reform; taxation structure; household consumption; heterogeneous consumer; income distribution