转移支付不确定性与政府债务规模——基于转移支付指标下达时间改革的政策实验

陈旭东 鹿洪源 岳文浩

（天津财经大学财税与公共管理学院）

 

内容提要：转移支付与政府债务是现行财政政策的有机组成部分，厘清其内在理论机制和逻辑互动关系，对建设现代财税金融体制具有重要意义。本文基于2010年开始提前下达固定数额转移支付指标这一事件，从不确定性风险的视角出发，利用2005—2017年的省级面板数据，实证检验转移支付不确定性的缓和是否抑制地方政府债务规模膨胀。研究发现：转移支付不确定性的缓和削弱了地方政府的支出扩张行为和竞争强度，减轻了土地财政问题并改善了预算偏离的情况，由此缓解了公共池效应、预算软约束问题以及随之到来的债务规模激增问题。人口老龄化程度和财政透明度均对政策效应形成异质性影响。因此，转移支付资金结构的合理化与资金分配的科学化是今后转移支付资金改革完善的主要方向；要切实降低转移支付的不确定性风险，构建并完善科学明晰的转移支付制度。

 

关键词：转移支付；不确定性风险；政府债务规模；公共池效应；预算软约束

 

作者简介：贺京同，南开大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，天津，300071；汪震，南开大学经济学院博士研究生；魏哲，南开大学经济学院博士研究生。

 

基金项目：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“创新驱动战略下的财税政策激励效应与优化研究”（20FJYB004）； 天津市研究生科研创新项目“双碳目标下促进制造业全产业链绿色低碳发展的财税政策研究”（2021YJSB349）

 

引用格式：陈旭东,鹿洪源,岳文浩.转移支付不确定性与政府债务规模——基于转移支付指标下达时间改革的政策实验[J].经济与管理研究,2022,43(12):19-34.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2022.12.002.

　　

　　

Transfer Payment Uncertainty and Government Debt Scale—Policy Experiment Based on Timing Reform of Transfer Payment Indicators

CHEN Xudong, LU Hongyuan, YUE Wenhao

(Tianjin University of Finance and Economics)

　　

　　Abstract: As transfer payments and government debt are integral to the current fiscal policy, it is crucial to clarify their internal theoretical mechanism and logical interaction for building a modern fiscal and financial system. This paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment from the perspective of uncertainty risk based on the event that fixed amount transfer payment indicators were issued in advance from 2010. Then, it empirically tests whether easing transfer payment uncertainty inhibits the expansion of the local government debt scale using the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017. The findings reveal that easing transfer payment uncertainty weakens the expenditure expansion behavior and competition intensity of local governments, alleviates the land finance problem and improves the budget deviation, thereby mitigating the public pool effect, the soft budget constraints, and the subsequent debt scale surge. Furthermore, both population aging and fiscal transparency have a heterogeneous impact on policy effects. Therefore, the rationalization of the transfer payment fund structure and the scientific allocation of funds should be the main direction of the reform and improvement in the future. Meanwhile, it is necessary to effectively reduce the uncertainty risk of transfer payments, and build and improve a scientific and clear transfer payment system.

 

　　Keywords:  transfer payment; uncertainty risk; government debt scale; public pool effect; soft budget constrain