中国城市规模的幂比例变化——验证与启示

李红雨^1,2 赵坚¹

（1.北京交通大学；2.山东科技大学）

 

内容提要：本文基于2007—2019年中国285个地级以上城市（区域）的面板数据，对中国城市的幂比例变化规律进行验证和分析，并利用2019年截面数据进行反事实假设。研究结果显示：中国城市物质基础设施类指标与城市人口规模按照亚线性比例变化，而中国的经济社会活动类指标也与城市人口规模按照超线性比例变化，中国城市的主要指标同样符合幂比例变化法则。根据反事实假设结果，在城镇化率不变的情况下，仅通过优化人口空间结构，会引起2019年中国国内生产总值增加5.55%，专利申请量增加8.2%，发明专利授权量增加18.97%；引起研究样本城市的建设用地面积减少4.2%，居住用地面积减少5.4%，实有道路面积减少4.95%，用电量减少14.17%。本文的研究结论为中国的城市化战略带来以下启示：中国应适当增加超大城市和特大城市的数量，并以这类城市为中心发展大都市区，以节约城市基础设施的投入和降低能源的消耗，同时实现收益递增和经济的高质量发展。

 

关键词：城市规模；幂比例变化法则；城市化战略；规模经济；收益递增；优化人口空间结构

 

作者简介：李红雨，北京交通大学经济管理学院博士研究生，北京，100044；山东科技大学财经系讲师，济南，250031；赵坚，北京交通大学中国城镇化研究中心教授、博士生导师。

 

基金项目：山东省金融应用重点研究项目“科技金融服务业促进山东省经济发展新旧动能转换的路径研究”（2020-JRZZ-23）

 

引用格式：李红雨,赵坚.中国城市规模的幂比例变化——验证与启示[J].经济与管理研究,2022,43(11):71-94.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2022.11.005.

　　

　　

Power Scaling of City Size in China
—Verification and Revelation

LI Hongyu^1,2, ZHAO Jian¹

(1. Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044;
2. Shandong University of Science and Technology, Jinan 250031)

　　

　　Abstract: This paper verifies and analyzes the power scaling law of Chinese cities based on the panel data of 285 prefecture level and above cities (regions) in China from 2007 to 2019, and makes counterfactual assumptions based on the cross-sectional data in 2019. It is found that China’s urban physical infrastructure indicators have a sublinear scaling relationship with the urban population scale, while China’s economic and social activity indicators have a superlinear scaling relationship with the urban population scale, and the main indicators of Chinese cities also comply with the power scaling law. According to the results of the counterfactual hypothesis conducted in this paper, optimizing the spatial structure of population only with a constant urbanization rate would cause an increase in China’s GDP by 5.55%, an increase in patent applications by 8.2%, and an increase in invention patent licenses by 18.97% in 2019. As a result, construction land areas, residential land areas, actual road areas and electricity consumption in the sample cities would decrease by 4.2%, 5.4%, 4.95% and 14.17% respectively. The findings may bring the following enlightenment for China’s urbanization strategy: China should appropriately increase the number of metropolises and megacities, and develop several metropolitan areas centered on such cities, so as to save the investment in urban infrastructure and the energy consumption, while achieving increasing returns and high-quality economic development.

 

　　Keywords:  city size;power scaling law; urbanization strategy; scale economy; increasing returns; optimizing spatial structure of population