多维邻近下中国城市高质量发展的时空演变与影响因素研究

黄梦涵 张卫国

（西南大学经济管理学院）

 

内容提要：本文基于2004—2019年全国285个地级市面板数据，从城市发展质量视角构建城市高质量发展的评价指标体系并予以测度，结合核密度估计、自然断点法、空间自相关分析等多元化统计手段，基于多维邻近空间权重，构建空间面板计量模型，探讨中国城市高质量发展的时空演变格局与影响因素。研究结果显示，中国城市高质量发展水平不断提升，其中，经济发展和公共服务高质量发展综合指数稳步上升。全国整体上逐渐形成东部稳定增长，带动中西部逐渐崛起的圈层式空间结构；中国城市高质量发展正向空间相关性显著，其中经济邻近效应表现较强。空间关联模式以“高-高”（HH）型集聚和“低-低”（LL）型集聚为主；城市化水平、城市发展基础、城市能级、对外开放、金融发展、人口集聚均对城市高质量发展存在显著影响，且具有空间邻近效应。

 

关键词：高质量发展；核密度估计；多维邻近；空间邻近效应；城市空间结构

 

作者简介：黄梦涵，西南大学经济管理学院博士研究生，重庆，400715；张卫国，西南大学经济管理学院/中国西部非公经济发展与扶贫反哺协同创新中心教授、博士生导师。

 

基金项目：马克思主义理论研究和建设工程特别委托项目“区域协调发展和新型城镇化研究”（2021MYB016）；国家社会科学基金重大项目“长江上游生态保护政策可持续性与机制构建研究”（20&ZD095）

 

引用格式：黄梦涵,张卫国.多维邻近下中国城市高质量发展的时空演变与影响因素研究[J].经济与管理研究,2022,43(11):54-70.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2022.11.004.

　　

　　

Research on the Spatial-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of 
High-quality Development of Chinese Cities Under Multi-dimensional Proximity

HUANG Menghan, ZHANG Weiguo

(Southwest University, Chongqing 400715)

　　

　　Abstract: Based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2019, this paper constructs and measures the evaluation index system of high-quality development of Chinese cities from the perspective of urban development quality. Then, it also develops a spatial panel econometric model based on spatial weights of multidimensional proximity to discuss the spatial-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of high-quality development of Chinese cities by combining diversified statistical methods such as kernel density estimation, the natural breakpoint method, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The conclusion shows that the level of high-quality development in Chinese cities is continuously improving, among which the comprehensive index of economic development and high-quality development of public services is steadily rising. On the whole, there is a circle-layered spatial structure with stable growth in the east and the gradual rise of the central and western regions, and the positive spatial correlation of high-quality development of Chinese cities is significant, among which the economic proximity effect is strong. Moreover, the spatial association mode is mainly HH-type agglomeration and LL-type agglomeration. Furthermore, the urbanization level, urban development foundation, the urban energy level, opening to the outside world, financial development, and population agglomeration significantly affect the high-quality development of cities, and have a spatial proximity effect.

 

　　Keywords:  high-quality development; kernel density estimation; multidimensional proximity; spatial proximity effect; urban spatial structure