预算绩效管理改革能缓解地方政府财政压力吗？——基于准自然实验的经验证据

王雪平¹  王小平²

（1. 江西财经大学会计学院  2. 宜春学院经济与管理学院）

 

内容提要：面对延宕反复的疫情形势和国内外经济形势的发展变化，地方财政收支平衡性受到了较大威胁。如何缓解地方政府的财政压力成了焦点话题。本文利用2001—2020年省级面板数据，采用双重差分模型，实证检验预算绩效管理改革对地方财政压力的影响。研究发现：预算绩效管理改革显著降低了地方财政压力。平行趋势检验、熵平衡匹配回归与其他一系列稳健性检验均支持上述结论。异质性分析发现，预算绩效管理改革抑制财政压力的作用在制度环境较差、政府审计较弱、财政分权程度较高的地区更加明显。机制检验发现，这一抑制作用的影响机制在于预算绩效管理改革提升了财政支出效率、降低了政府行政成本以及增强了财政透明度。进一步分析发现，预算绩效管理的广度不足，尚未有效覆盖一般公共预算之外的其他预算，如政府性基金预算。经济后果检验表明，预算绩效管理改革缓解了财政压力之后，地方政府会放松对辖区企业的税收监管，提高对辖区企业的政府补助。本文的研究丰富了预算绩效管理改革的经济后果的文献，为地方政府运用预算绩效管理来缓解财政压力提供了实证证据。

 

关键词：财政收支平衡；财政压力；预算绩效管理改革；财政支出效率；财政透明度

 

作者简介：王雪平，江西财经大学会计学院讲师，南昌，330013；王小平，宜春学院经济与管理学院教授，宜春，336000。

 

基金项目：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“政府采购对企业创新的政策效应研究——基于主客观双重传导机制”（72063031）；江西省社会科学基金项目“财政政策不确定性、管理层心理预期与企业创新”(20GL33）

 

引用格式：王雪平,王小平.预算绩效管理改革能缓解地方政府财政压力吗?——基于准自然实验的经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2022,43(10):20-37.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2022.10.002.

　　

　　

Can Budget Performance Management Reform Ease Financial Pressure on Local Governments?

—Empirical Evidence Based on Quasi-natural Experiment

WANG Xueping¹, WANG Xiaoping²

(1. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013;

2. Yichun University, Yichun 336000)

 　　

　　Abstract: The protracted COVID-19 pandemic and changes in the economic situation at home and abroad are threatening the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure. How to ease the financial pressure on local governments becomes a focal topic. This paper empirically examines the impact of the budget performance management reform on the local fiscal pressure, using the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2020 and the difference-in-differences(DID) model. The findings show that the budget performance management reform significantly reduces the local financial pressure, which remains valid after the parallel trend test, the entropy balance matching regression, and other robustness tests. According to the heterogeneity analysis, the inhibitory effect of the reform on fiscal pressure is more obvious in the areas with poorer institutional environment, weaker government audit, and higher degree of fiscal decentralization.Meanwhile, the influence mechanism of this inhibitory effect is that the budget performance management reform improves the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, reduces government administration costs, and enhances fiscal transparency. Furthermore, budget performance management is insufficient in breadth, failing to effectively cover budgets other than the general public budget, such as the government-managed funds budget. The economic consequences test suggests that after the reform of budget performance management eases the financial pressure, local governments will relax the tax supervision of enterprises in their jurisdiction and increase government subsidies to these enterprises. Therefore, this paper may contribute to the literature on the economic consequences of budget performance management reform, and provide empirical evidence for local governments to use budget performance management to ease the financial pressure.

 

　　Keywords:  fiscal balance; financial pressure; budget performance management reform; financial expenditure efficiency; fiscal transparency