海洋新质生产力与高质量发展的耦合协调及组态路径研究

李志军　王伟　姜延杰　魏珊珊

（中国海洋大学）

摘要：本文基于中国沿海省级行政区的平衡面板数据，使用耦合协调度模型考察海洋新质生产力与海洋经济高质量发展的耦合协调态势；同时运用空间杜宾模型和动态定性比较分析模型揭示了两者耦合协调度的影响因素与多元组态路径。研究发现，中国海洋新质生产力与海洋经济高质量发展耦合协调度在2007—2022年稳步上升，达到初级协调状态，但其区域差异有进一步扩大的趋势，且各海洋经济圈间差异是造成两者耦合协调度区域差异的主要来源。产业结构高级化、养老保障、医疗资源、图书馆资源、文化产业化和植树造林是影响海洋新质生产力与海洋经济高质量耦合协调发展的主要因素；基于条件组态思想，本文进一步识别出“社会-文化”主导型、文化主导及社会与生态辅助型、“四位一体”型几类实现耦合协调发展的多元组态路径。据此，本文提出了攻关海洋关键核心技术、推动数据要素赋能融合、加快绿色低碳技术创新、健全涉海产权与市场标准、构建跨部门协同治理机制等政策建议。

关键词：海洋新质生产力；海洋经济高质量发展；耦合协调度；组态路径；海洋强国

作者简介：李志军，中国海洋大学管理学院教授、博士生导师，青岛，266100；王伟，中国海洋大学管理学院博士研究生；姜延杰，中国海洋大学管理学院博士研究生；魏珊珊，中国海洋大学管理学院讲师，通信作者。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“推动高质量发展的市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境研究”（23ZDA055）; 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“‘水平-垂直’双重视角下税负公平对资本跨区流动的影响效应研究”（25YJC630145）; 青岛市哲学社会科学规划研究项目“‘十五五’时期青岛构建更高水平市场化法治化国际化一流营商环境的策略研究”（QDSKL2501023）

引用格式：李志军，王伟，姜延杰，等. 海洋新质生产力与高质量发展的耦合协调及组态路径研究[J]. 经济与管理研究，2026，47（8）：3-21.

Coupling Coordination and Configuration Paths of Marine New Quality Productive Forces and High-Quality Development

LI Zhijun, WANG Wei, JIANG Yanjie, WEI Shanshan

(Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100)

Abstract: Fostering marine new quality productive forces (MNQPF) and advancing the high-quality development of the marine economy are key priorities for China to become a strong maritime, yet their coupling coordination and underlying driving mechanisms remain insufficiently explored. Using balanced panel data from 11 coastal provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2007 to 2022, this paper employs a coupling coordination degree model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of the synergistic relationship between MNQPF and the high-quality development of the marine economy. It then applies the spatial Durbin model to identify the key factors influencing the coupling coordination and their spatial spillovers, and further utilizes the dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method to uncover the multiple configuration paths through which diverse conditions combine to achieve high-level coupling coordination.

The principal findings are as follows. First, the coupling coordination degree exhibited a steadily upward trajectory between 2007 and 2022, reaching the primary coordination stage. However, regional disparities in coupling coordination have shown a pronounced tendency to widen, and inter-circle differences across the major marine economic circles constitute the dominant source of such regional heterogeneity. Second, in terms of driving mechanisms, industrial structure upgrading, pension security, medical resource availability, library resource endowment, cultural industrialization, and afforestation efforts are identified as pivotal factors that influence the coupling coordination. Third, adopting a configurational perspective, this paper further identifies three distinct multi-factor paths conducive to achieving coordinated development, including a socio-cultural dominant path, a culture-led path, and a four-dimensional integrated path that synergistically combines economic, social, cultural, and ecological forces. This paper offers a new theoretical perspective on the coupling coordination between productive forces and economic systems in the marine sector and provides empirical evidence to foster a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between new-quality marine productivity and the high-quality development of the marine economy in practice.

Drawing on the above empirical insights, this paper advances a series of targeted policy recommendations. These include intensifying breakthroughs in marine core technologies to strengthen the technological foundation of MNQPF; promoting the empowerment and deep integration of data as a key factor of production across marine industries; accelerating green and low-carbon technological innovation to align marine economic growth with ecological sustainability; refining marine property rights regimes and market standards to improve the institutional environment for marine resource allocation, and establishing cross-departmental collaborative governance mechanisms to foster the coordinated advancement of MNQPF and the high-quality development of the marine economy.

Keywords: marine new quality productive forces; high-quality development of the marine economy; coupling coordination degree; configuration path; a strong maritime nation

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