债务风险、土地依赖与地方财政韧性

贾智莲¹　赵新艳¹　张亚莹¹　龚 锋²

（1.内蒙古财经大学；2.武汉大学）

内容提要：提升地方财政韧性对于防范和化解不确定、难预料风险，统筹推进高质量发展和高水平安全具有重要意义。本文选取2015—2022年中国城市数据，采用基于静态视角的面积比例法和动态视角的距离比例法，对2015年以来的地方财政韧性进行评估，并进一步考察债务风险对地方财政韧性的影响，以及土地财政与债务风险的交互效应。研究结果表明，2015年以来，地市级财政韧性不足且呈现两极分化，系统抵抗力优于恢复力，地区间财政实时韧性水平表现出较大差异。在巨大的偿债压力下，地方财政系统韧性不足，土地依赖与债务风险的叠加进一步降低了地方财政韧性。未来应加强地方财政韧性治理，推动地方财政系统从“被动防御”向“主动适应”转型，为经济高质量发展提供安全保障。

关键词：地方财政；地方财政韧性；财政自给率；债务风险；土地财政

作者简介：贾智莲，内蒙古财经大学财政税务学院教授，通信作者，呼和浩特，010070；赵新艳，内蒙古财经大学财政税务学院硕士研究生；张亚莹，内蒙古财经大学财政税务学院硕士研究生；龚锋，武汉大学经济与管理学院教授，武汉，430072。

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“土地依赖和债务风险交叠下的地方财政韧性机制研究”（23BJY024）；内蒙古地方财政研究中心项目“多维风险扰动下的地方财政韧性评估及提升策略研究”（dfcz202503）

引用格式：贾智莲,赵新艳,张亚莹,等.债务风险、土地依赖与地方财政韧性[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(10):3-20.

Debt Risks, Land Dependence, and Local Fiscal Resilience

JIA Zhilian¹, ZHAO Xinyan¹, ZHANG Yaying¹, GONG Feng²

(1. Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070;

2. Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072)

Abstract: Enhancing local fiscal resilience is crucial for preventing and mitigating unpredictable risks, as well as for coordinating high-quality development with high-level security. By employing both a static area-proportion method and a dynamic distance-proportion method, this paper assesses the fiscal resilience of 225 cities in China from 2015 to 2022. Furthermore, it systematically examines the impact mechanism of local government debt risks on fiscal resilience and the interaction between land-based finance and debt risks.

The findings reveal that local governments’ long-term dual dependence on debt and land has exposed vulnerabilities in the local fiscal system. Since 2014, amid economic slowdown and tighter central government regulations on local financing activities, the point-in-time resilience of local fiscal systems has trended downward, with diverging resilience levels across regions. High levels of local government debt risks have triggered a surge in fiscal violations. Limited fiscal space has diminished the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation, leading to insufficient fiscal resilience. The interaction between land-revenue dependency and debt risks exerts a negative impact on local fiscal resilience.

Accordingly, this paper proposes the following recommendations. First, it is essential to diversify revenue sources to increase local autonomous fiscal capacity. This can be achieved by cultivating diverse and sustained revenue streams and optimizing the structure of local fiscal revenues to enhance the resilience of the local fiscal system. The local tax system should be improved by establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for shared taxes, including shifting the collection point of consumption tax from the production stage to the retail stage, allocating the full amount or a high proportion of consumption tax to cities and counties based on the destination principle, thereby creating a stable tax source to replace land transfer revenue, and merging taxes such as the urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge into a local surtax. Second, local fiscal space should be moderately expanded while strengthening the management of local government debt risks. In the short term, local government debt ceilings should be appropriately raised to expand fiscal space, enabling local governments to coordinate with the central government in implementing macroeconomic policies, enhance the effectiveness of countercyclical regulation, alleviate fiscal pressures, and swiftly restore the stability of local fiscal operations. Local governments should seize this opportunity to conduct debt swaps and resolve hidden debts. Long-term efforts should focus on continuously optimizing the central-local debt structure and controlling the scale of local government debt. Priority should be given to managing debt expansion in regions with high reliance on land-based finance, while advancing the orderly transformation of land-based fiscal systems.

Keywords: local fiscal; local fiscal resilience; fiscal self-sufficiency rate; debt risk; land-based finance

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