文章摘要
“挤出”还是“挤入”:财政支出结构对私人投资影响的动态机制
Crowding out or crowding in?:The Dynamic Mechanism Analysis of How the Fiscal Expenditure Structure Affects Private Investment——a Simulating Analysis Based on DSGE Model
投稿时间:2016-12-15  最后修改时间:2016-12-20
DOI:
中文关键词: 财政支出结构 DSGE模型  正外部性 私人投资
英文关键词: fiscal expenditure structure  DSGE model  positive externalities  private investment
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杨源源 南京大学经济学院 leeperyang@foxmail.com 
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中文摘要:
      内容:本文构建新凯恩斯DSGE模型,将财政支出细分为投资性支出、消费性支出、转移支付三类,综合考虑各类财政工具内生反应规则,并采用贝叶斯估计方法,系统探究了结构性财政支出工具对私人投资的影响机制。研究发现,不同财政支出工具对私人投资的作用机制以及宏观效应存在非一致性:(1)投资性支出主要通过生产正外部性和总需求加速数效应挤入私人投资,并在支出结构中对主要经济变量挤入最为明显,但短期会导致债务和通胀风险;(2)消费性支出通过总需求加速数效应挤入投资,但对主要经济变量挤入程度较低且短期易产生债务和通胀风险;(3)转移支付通过影响居民消费产生需求加速数效应引致投资增加,虽然挤入程度偏低但其引致的社会风险和福利损失最小。考虑不同支出作用机制的差异性,本文认为新常态下财政宏观调控应根据经济周期特征审慎选择恰当的财政支出工具以提升调控效率,促进宏观经济行稳致远。
英文摘要:
      The paper builds a New Keynesian DSGE model, in which the fiscal expenditure has been subdivided into investment spending, consumer spending, and transfer payment, and different sorts of fiscal rules are considered, to systematically study the influence of structural fiscal tools on private investment using bayes estimation. The research shows that different fiscal expenditure tools have various ways to affect private investment and its mro-effects are totally disparate:the investment expenditure intrudes in private investment mainly by positive externalities of production and accelerating effects of total demand. And the crowding-in effect mostly appears in main economic variables which leads to short term debt and inflation risk. The consumer expenditure crowds in investment also by accelerating effects of total demand, though its crowding-in effect towards main economic variables is weak, and often leads to debt and inflation risk in short run; and transfer payment increases investment through impacting residential consumption to bring accelerating effects of total demand, although its crowding-in effect is to a low distent yet bringing minimal social risk and welfare loss. Considering different ways of spending taking effects, we come to a conclusion that in this “new normal” economy, micro-control of fiscal policy should choose proper tools according to features of economic cycle to maintain sustainable economic growth.
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